USD loses ground, traders flock to Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold has set a new all-time high amid weak US industrial output. A short-term correction may follow, with a target at the 3,240 USD support level. Discover more in our analysis for 16 April 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- US industrial production: previously at 0.7%, projected at -0.2%
- US retail sales for March: previously at 0.2%, projected at 1.3%
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 16 April 2025: 3,340 and 3,240
Fundamental analysis
The XAUUSD outlook for 16 April 2025 takes into account that US industrial production could decline to -0.2%, which may put additional pressure on the US dollar and drive XAUUSD quotes higher.
US retail sales is a gauge that shows the current amount of goods sold in retail trade for the month. It indicates how much consumer demand has changed from the previous month. The calculation takes into account all sales in stores, catering outlets, online sales, and other commercial structures, including expenditures on services.
According to the forecast for 16 April 2025, the indicator may rise to 1.3%, up from the previous 0.2%. This suggests increased consumer activity and possible economic strengthening.
The XAUUSD price forecast for 16 April 2025 appears rather optimistic, with prices likely to maintain their upward momentum towards 3,340 USD after a correction.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger band. The pair is currently building a bullish wave following the pattern signal. Having broken out of the ascending channel, XAUUSD quotes are likely to extend their rally. The immediate upside target could be the 3,340 USD resistance level.
However, XAUUSD technical analysis for today also suggests an alternative scenario, where prices correct towards 3,240 USD before resuming the uptrend.
In the medium term, XAUUSD prices could reach a new all-time high following the correction and head towards 3,500 USD.
Summary
The decline in US industrial production may weigh on the US dollar, while stronger retail sales highlight improved consumer activity. Against this backdrop, the XAUUSD forecast for 16 April 2025 remains bullish, with Gold prices likely to resume their climb towards 3,340 USD.