The USDCAD rate fell to the area around 1.3900 amid a possible US government shutdown this week due to suspended funding. Discover more in our analysis for 29 September 2025.
USDCAD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: the market is waiting to see whether the US government shutdown will happen
- Current trend: moving downwards
- USDCAD forecast for 29 September 2025: 1.3960 or 1.3880
Fundamental analysis
On Monday, US President Donald Trump will meet at the White House with four top congressional leaders in a last attempt to avoid a government shutdown, as federal funding expires on Tuesday evening.
A potential shutdown would suspend many government operations, delay federal employees’ salaries, and trigger ripple effects in global markets. The deadlock highlights the sharp divide: Democrats want to preserve funding for social programs, while Republicans insist on deeper spending cuts.
Data released last week by Statistics Canada showed that the country’s real GDP was virtually unchanged in August, as growth in wholesale and retail trade was offset by declines in mining, manufacturing, and transportation.
USDCAD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair is declining within the current downward correction. The daily trend is still bullish, so the pair may resume growth after the correction is complete.
The short-term USDCAD forecast suggests further decline if bears push the price below 1.3920. Conversely, if bulls regain control and hold above support at 1.3920, the pair could climb towards the 1.3960 resistance level and higher.
Summary
The USDCAD rate is falling, having reached the 1.3920 support level. Market participants are now focused on resolving the US government funding issue.
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