USDCAD is under pressure amid Canada’s positive labour market data

The USDCAD rate remains within the range, with the price currently at 1.4340. Find out more in our analysis for 10 February 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Canada’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.6%, reaching the lowest level in the past three months
• The Canadian economy added 76 thousand new jobs, well above analysts’ forecasts
• Canada’s positive labour market data eased concerns about an economic slowdown
• USDCAD forecast for 10 February 2025: 1.4385 and 1.4465

Fundamental analysis

Having rebounded from the 1.4370 resistance level, the USDCAD rate is consolidating amid Canada’s positive labour market data. In January 2025, the unemployment rate in the country fell to 6.6%, reaching the lowest level in the past three months. The result was well above forecasts, which expected unemployment to rise to 6.8%.

Additionally, the economy added 76 thousand new jobs in January, well above analysts’ expectations of job growth of 25 thousand. The robust figures indicate the resilience of the Canadian labour market and ease concerns about a potential economic slowdown, which the Bank of Canada had previously warned about.

This week, investors will focus on crucial US consumer inflation data due on Wednesday, with weekly jobless claims data and the PPI report scheduled for Thursday. According to today’s USDCAD forecast, this data may significantly impact the currency pair’s movements in the coming days.

USDCAD technical analysis

The USDCAD H1 chart shows a persistent downtrend, which began after the price secured below 1.4380. The price is currently consolidating near the key low support level at 1.4270, which may indicate a slowdown in the current downward momentum. Today’s USDCAD forecast suggests a potential short-term price rebound towards the range’s upper boundary at 1.4465.

The Stochastic Oscillator signals confirm this scenario. The oscillator values have left the oversold area, and the %K и %D lines have crossed from bottom to top, signalling the bullish momentum. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Double Bottom reversal pattern will confirm growth in the USDCAD pair, with the price consolidating above 1.4385.

An alternative scenario suggests a breakout below the support level and price consolidation below 1.4260. This will indicate the cancellation of the reversal pattern and increase the bearish momentum towards the 1.4205 and 1.4160 levels.

Summary

The USDCAD rate is falling amid Canada’s robust labour market data. Investors’ focus has shifted to the upcoming US inflation and employment statistics, which may change the pair’s current dynamics. The USDCAD technical analysis indicates a high likelihood of a price rise to the 1.4385 and 1.4465 levels amid reversal signals from the Stochastic Oscillator and the formation of the Double Bottom pattern. However, a breakout below the 1.4260 support level may invalidate this scenario and increase the bearish momentum towards the 1.4205 and 1.4160 levels.