A rise in US industrial production and retail sales could drive the USDCHF rate up to 0.9040. More details in our analysis for 17 December 2024.
USDCHF forecast: key trading points
- SECO economic forecasts for Switzerland
- US retail sales (m/m): previously 0.4%, projected at 0.6%
- US industrial production (m/m): previously -0.29%, projected at 0.10%
- USDCHF forecast for 17 December 2024: 0.9040
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis for 17 December 2024 takes into account that Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will release updated economic growth forecasts today. The previous forecast, published on 19 September 2024, expected GDP growth of 1.1%, significantly below the average. The inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down to 1.2% from 1.4%, and the 2025 outlook was reduced to 0.7%. Today’s SECO report will provide the latest data on economic conditions and the outlook for 2025.
The forecast for 17 December 2024 suggests that US retail sales may rise to 0.6%. Actual data may differ from expectations; however, increased sales in November may support the US dollar.
US industrial production is also projected to rise to a positive level from the previous -0.29%, with the forecast for 17 December 2024 suggesting a production level of 0.10%. Although this is a modest increase, it may instil hope in investors.
USDCHF technical analysis
The USDCHF H4 chart shows the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.8900, and a breakout above this level is expected today, 17 December 2024. A breakout above 0.8949 would open the potential for a growth wave towards 0.8989, possibly continuing to the local target of 0.9040.
The Elliott Wave structure and wave matrix, with a pivot point at 0.8900, technically support this scenario. This level is seen as crucial for the next growth wave in the USDCHF rate. The market is forming a consolidation range around it. An upward breakout could trigger a growth wave towards the upper boundary of an envelope at 0.9040.
Summary
Together with positive fundamental data from the US, technical analysis for today’s USDCHF forecast suggests a potential growth wave towards the 0.9040 level.
