USDJPY extends rally: it’s all about US tariffs

The USDJPY pair is rising rapidly, climbing towards 147.08. The situation with trade negotiations has become more complicated. Details – in our analysis for 9 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair continues its rally, rising for the third consecutive day
• Japan will seek options to reduce the tariff burden
• USDJPY forecast for 9 July 2025: 148.02

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate soared above 147.00 on Wednesday. Growth has been observed for the third session in a row. Pressure on the yen increased amid complications in trade negotiations between the US and Japan, particularly regarding protection of the Japanese rice market.

The decline followed President Donald Trump’s statement about imposing a 25% tariff on Japanese goods from 1 August. Trump emphasised that the new tariffs will affect 14 countries simultaneously, with no deferrals provided.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called Washington’s measures truly regrettable but confirmed that Tokyo will continue negotiations in hopes of reaching a mutually beneficial agreement.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Board Member Junko Koeda noted that the regulator is closely monitoring possible secondary inflationary effects, particularly due to rising food prices.

The forecast for USDJPY is positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart for USDJPY, the rate rose above 147.00 and approached the resistance level at 147.26. The upward movement is accompanied by Bollinger Bands expansion, indicating increasing volatility.

The key support is at 145.24, where previous consolidation was observed. The next seller interest zone is 144.20. A breakthrough below these levels may signal the beginning of a correction.

The nearest resistance stands at 148.02. If the current momentum continues, this level will become the target for the upcoming sessions. However, local overbought conditions and potential political statements or progress in trade negotiations may lead to profit-taking and a pullback towards 145.00.

The overall technical picture remains in favour of USD growth.

Summary

The USDJPY pair has been rising for the third day, strengthening its position amid tariff complications. The forecast for USDJPY today, 9 July 2025, does not rule out a further upward wave towards 148.02.