USDJPY fell to a two-week low: US dollar is very weak

The USDJPY pair dropped to 144.38 at its two-week low. Pressure on the US dollar is increasing. Details – in our analysis for 27 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• USDJPY pair fell to a two-week low due to weakening of the US dollar
• Inflation in Tokyo showed growth, which will help the BoJ to raise the rate
• USDJPY forecast for 27 June 2025: 143.75

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY rate fell to 144.38 on Friday. Pressure on the USD strengthened amid rising expectations of a deeper rate cut by the Fed.

Sentiment changed after reports that Donald Trump may nominate a candidate for Fed Chair as early as September or October. This is likely to be someone aligned with a dovish monetary policy strategy.

Jerome Powell underlined this line in his recent testimony to Congress, stating that the Fed would have continued easing if not for inflationary risks linked to tariffs.

The White House is trying to downplay the importance of upcoming tariff deadlines, further reducing investor fears over a prolonged trade conflict.

Domestic data showed core inflation in Tokyo slowed in June. However, it remains significantly above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target level, supporting expectations of further rate hikes by the regulator.

The USDJPY forecast is negative.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USDJPY shows a correction phase after a sharp rise that ended around 148.00 – the local high. After reaching this level, the pair started to decline, breaking support in the 145.96 area and consolidating below 144.80. Currently, the price fluctuates near 144.40, remaining under pressure. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator points to a shift in momentum, with the price holding in the lower half of the range.

Resistance stands at 144.80 and 145.96, while the nearest support lies at 143.75. If USDJPY breaks this support downwards, the next target will be 142.80. If it recovers and consolidates above 144.80, another attempt to rise can be expected. For now, the dynamics remain downward within the local correction.

Summary

The USDJPY pair has fallen quite significantly due to pressure on the US dollar. The forecast for USDJPY today, 27 June 2025, does not rule out a test of the support at 143.75 followed by a decline towards 142.80.