The introduction of tariffs on Japanese goods by the US puts pressure on USDJPY, contributing to its growth. Current quote – 146.86. Details – in our analysis for 11 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods
- The Japanese Prime Minister described the tariff confrontation as a battle for Japan's national interests
- USDJPY forecast for 11 July 2025: 144.25
Fundamental analysis
USDJPY is recovering after two sessions of decline, with buyers once again attempting to break the resistance level at 147.25. The US dollar strengthens amid rising global trade tensions.
Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, effective from 1 August, further escalating US-Japan relations. In response, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasised the importance of reducing the country's dependence on the US in key strategic areas such as defence, food security, and energy. He described the ongoing tariff confrontation as a battle determining national interests.
Meanwhile, Japan is actively negotiating with the US at the ministerial level. The next meetings between Japanese negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are scheduled for next week in Osaka.
USDJPY technical analysis
USDJPY has settled above Moving Averages, indicating a high probability of continued bullish momentum. However, the pair is approaching the upper boundary of a larger Triangle pattern. The quotes are testing key resistance for the second time, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
The forecast for USDJPY today suggests a rebound from the resistance level at 147.25 and a decline towards 144.25. The Stochastic Oscillator analysis also supports the reversal scenario: its values are in the overbought zone, and signal lines have crossed, forming a sell signal.
Additional confirmation of the start of a decline would be a break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel with subsequent consolidation below 145.65.
Summary
Heightened global trade tensions and US tariffs on Japanese goods contribute to the pair’s growth. However, USDJPY technical analysis indicates a high likelihood of a rebound from resistance at 147.25, followed by a decline to 144.25.
