USDJPY rises: bulls storm key resistance

USDJPY reached a resistance level, with the US dollar still supported by strong employment data. Current quote – 144.95. Details – in our analysis for 7 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• US employment data came out stronger than expected, supporting the US dollar
• Japan’s coincident economic index fell in May 2025 to 115.9
• Japan’s leading economic index rose to 105.3 but remained at its lowest since August 2020
• USDJPY forecast for 7 July 2025: 142.80

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY continues to strengthen, with buyers attempting to consolidate above the key resistance at 145.05. The dollar’s growth is supported by stronger-than-expected US employment data, which helped ease concerns about a slowdown in the American economy.

In Japan, the picture is less optimistic. The coincident economic index, reflecting current trends in industrial production, employment, and retail sales, fell in May 2025 to 115.9, according to preliminary data.

The leading economic index, which signals prospects for the coming months, rose to 105.3 but remained at its lowest monthly level since August 2020, indicating persistent risks of economic slowdown.

Additionally, employment in Japan in May fell to record lows, despite the unemployment rate remaining stable at 2.5%.

USDJPY technical analysis

USDJPY has consolidated above the Moving Averages, indicating a high probability of developing a bullish impulse and another attempt to rise. However, the pair is approaching the upper boundary of the descending channel, and there remains potential for forming a Double Top reversal pattern.

The forecast for USDJPY today suggests a rebound from the resistance level at 145.25 and a decline in quotes towards 142.80. Analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator confirms the reversal scenario: the indicator values are in the overbought zone, and the signal lines have crossed, forming a sell signal.

Additional confirmation of the start of a decline would be a break below the lower boundary of the ascending corrective channel with subsequent consolidation below 143.95.

Summary

The fundamental background indicates continued pressure on the yen, while USDJPY strengthens on the back of strong US statistics and weak Japanese economic data. USDJPY technical analysis points to the risk of a reversal down from resistance at 145.25 with targets for a decline at 142.80.