USDJPY surges as yen sinks on broad risk appetite

The USDJPY pair strengthened to 148.44 as safe-haven assets are out of favour with the market. Discover more in our analysis for 12 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair continues to rise, recovering after the early August drop
• Investors await Bank of Japan decisions and Q2 GDP data
• USDJPY forecast for 12 August 2025: 148.67 and 149.75

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 148.44 on Tuesday, marking the third consecutive session of gains amid improved global trade prospects, which reduced demand for safe-haven currencies. The US dollar gained support from news of a 90-day extension to the truce in US-China trade negotiations. This eased tensions and gave both sides more time to reach an agreement.

Domestically, market participants are focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook. Board members remain divided over the timing and pace of future rate hikes. Some advocate maintaining a loose policy stance due to uncertainty surrounding the regulator’s economic forecasts.

In the coming days, investors await the release of key Japanese macroeconomic indicators, including Q2 GDP, the Reuters Tankan survey, producer price data, and machine tool orders.

The USDJPY forecast is positive.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has paused near 148.44. The pair continues to recover after its late-July drop. The rally, which began on 25 July, led to a test of the 150.95 high, followed by a sharp pullback.

The support level has formed at 147.33 and 146.61. In early August, the price consolidated in the 146.60-148.00 range, and since 9 August, a gradual upward move has resumed. The pair is now approaching the key resistance level at 148.67.

A breakout above this mark would open the way towards 149.75 and then 150.95, while a failed attempt to consolidate above it could return the price to the 147.33 area. The widening of Bollinger Bands indicates rising volatility and the potential for a strong move in the near term.

Summary

The USDJPY pair is pushing higher and has strong prospects to extend this move. The USDJPY forecast for today, 12 August 2025, does not rule out a possible rise to 148.67.