USDJPY under pressure after U.S. consumer confidence drops
The USDJPY pair continues to decline, moving closer to key support on the back of weak U.S. consumer confidence data. Current quote – 147.56. Full details in our analysis for 1 October 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers improved, reaching the highest level since late 2024
- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September, below the forecast of 96
- U.S. Consumer Expectations Index dropped by 1.3 points to 73.4 – a recession signal
- USDJPY forecast for 1 October 2025: 146.80
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY pair has been declining for four consecutive trading sessions, approaching key support at 147.45. The yen is supported by improved sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers: in Q3, the indicator reached its highest level since late 2024. The Bank of Japan highlighted this survey as an important guide for the potential timing of further rate hikes. Markets currently price in a 39% probability of a 25 bps rate increase at the BoJ’s meeting later this month.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September, below the forecast of 96 and under the revised August figure. The Consumer Expectations Index slipped by 1.3 points to 73.4, a worrying signal: historically, readings below 80 point to a risk of recession within a year. Consumer confidence is now at its lowest level since April.
USDJPY technical analysis
USDJPY remains within a descending channel, with the current decline accelerating after a rebound from local resistance at 148.20.
The chart shows that price rejected the upper channel boundary and settled below the Moving Average, confirming persistent selling pressure. An additional bearish signal comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, where the lines crossed and turned downward.
The forecast for USDJPY today suggests a bearish scenario with a break below support at 147.45 and a decline toward 146.80.
Summary
Pressure on the U.S. dollar is mounting due to stronger sentiment among Japanese manufacturers, raising expectations of BoJ tightening, as well as weaker U.S. consumer confidence, which fell to multi-month lows and signals recession risk. Technical analysis for USDJPY confirms sustained downside momentum, with a likely break below 147.45 and a move toward 146.80.