Volatility rises: Boeing suffers from tariffs, but the situation may change

Ongoing uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariff policy continues to drive volatility in Boeing shares.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) has yet to recover fully from the quality issues affecting its aircraft following the 737 MAX crashes and subsequent regulatory pressure and now faces additional challenges. The trade war could further weaken the company’s position in the aerospace market, as it relies on raw materials and components sourced from abroad for aircraft production. Investors are awaiting the Q2 2025 report to assess Boeing’s current standing and future prospects amid Donald Trump’s volatile tariff policy.

This article examines The Boeing Company, outlines the sources of its revenues, and summarises its performance over the 2024 calendar year. It also offers a technical analysis of BA, which serves as the basis for the Boeing stock price forecast for 2025.

About The Boeing Company

The Boeing Company is one of the world’s largest aerospace and defence firms. It was founded on 15 July 1916 by William Boeing in Seattle, Washington. The company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, and selling commercial aircraft, military equipment, satellites, missile systems and space technology. In addition, Boeing provides both support services and financial solutions.

Boeing’s IPO took place in 1962, and the company is listed on the NYSE under the ticker BA.

The Boeing Company’s key revenue streams

The Boeing Company generates revenue from the following sources:

• Commercial Airplanes (BCA): the manufacture and sale of commercial airliners, including the 737, 767, 777 and 787 Dreamliner models. This is the company’s largest segment by revenue but also the most sensitive to market demand fluctuations, regulatory scrutiny, and technical risks. Boeing is actively working to regain ground following the earlier suspension of 737 MAX deliveries
• Defense, Space & Security (BDS): covers military aircraft, drones, satellite systems, missiles and equipment for NASA. This segment delivers stable revenues through long-term contracts with the US government and allied nations
• Global Services (BGS): aftermarket services, maintenance, personnel training, spare parts supply, digital solutions, and logistics. This division supports Boeing’s customer base in both civil and defence sectors, generating steady profits and high margins
• Boeing Capital Corporation (BCC): financial services, including leasing and customer financing. This segment helps Boeing clients fund aircraft purchases, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty

The Boeing Company’s financial position and key risk factors

Boeing ended 2024 with revenues of 66.5 billion USD, down 14% from the previous year. Its net loss reached 11.8 billion USD, significantly higher than the 2.2 billion USD loss recorded in 2023. Negative operating cash flow totalled 12.1 billion USD, underscoring severe financial strain. Despite this, the company’s order backlog remains substantial – around 521 billion USD, including more than 5,500 commercial aircraft orders – which signals sustained long-term demand.

A series of negative factors weighed on Boeing’s 2024 financial performance. Chief among them was a strike by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), which halted production of the 737, 767, and 777/777X models, significantly impacting delivery volumes. The company also incurred substantial restructuring costs, including staff reductions and internal restructuring. In the defence segment, additional expenses across several contracts further reduced profitability and eroded margins in this division.

At the end of 2024, Boeing held approximately 26.3 billion USD in cash and marketable securities. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow pose a risk to the company’s financial stability. Should these figures persist, they could affect Boeing’s credit ratings and its ability to fund future programs.

Boeing’s share price has faced additional pressure due to President Donald Trump’s trade policy, which implemented sweeping tariffs on imports to the US. These measures increase production costs, particularly in the commercial aviation segment, where a significant proportion of components is sourced abroad. The prospect of rising costs has raised investor concerns over an additional decline in margins and the loss of competitive advantages amid intensifying rivalry with Airbus. Tensions in trade relations with China – traditionally a strong market for Boeing and a major source of orders – have contributed to share price volatility and heightened uncertainty regarding future deliveries to one of its key international markets.

Despite the challenging situation, Boeing’s management is taking active steps to stabilise operations. Production of key aircraft models resumed after the strike ended. Efforts are underway to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency. Particular focus is being placed on enhancing quality control and ensuring product safety – critical factors in regaining the trust of both customers and aviation regulators.

Investors continue to monitor the company closely as both significant risks and opportunities remain. Risks include ongoing oversight from the FAA and other regulators, competitive pressure from Airbus, the implications of tariff policy, and macroeconomic uncertainty affecting the broader aviation market.

At the same time, Boeing’s large order book, government contracts and the potential recovery of its commercial division offer a foundation for a gradual return to stability. Boeing remains a key player in the aerospace industry, but investors should weigh both its strategic prospects and current operational challenges.

Expert forecasts for The Boeing Company shares

• Barchart: 17 of 25 analysts rated Boeing shares as a Strong Buy, one as a Moderate Buy, six as a Hold, and one as a Strong Sell. The high price target is 250 USD, while the low is 113 USD
• MarketBeat: 16 out of 23 specialists issued a Buy rating for the shares, 6 gave a Hold recommendation, and one gave a Sell. The high price target is 250 USD, and the low is 113 USD
• TipRanks: 12 out of 18 respondents gave the shares a Buy rating, five recommended Hold, and one recommended Sell. The high price target is 240 USD, while the low is 113 USD
• Stock Analysis: out of 19 experts, eight rated the shares as a Strong Buy, five as a Buy, four as a Hold, one as a Sell, and one as a Strong Sell. The high price target is 250 USD, while the low is 113 USD

The Boeing Company stock price forecast for 2025

A convergence has formed on the MACD indicator on the weekly timeframe, signalling a potential rise in Boeing’s stock. The price has also rebounded from a key support level, and Trump’s decision to pause tariffs for 90 days has given the market hope for a favourable resolution to the trade dispute. Based on Boeing’s stock performance, the following price movements are expected in 2025:

The base-case scenario for Boeing’s stock foresees a test of resistance at 190 USD. A breakout above this level could drive the price higher towards the next resistance level, around 260 USD.

The alternative forecast for Boeing’s stock suggests an escalation in the US-China trade dispute, which could result in the share price plunging to 90 USD.

Summary

Boeing is set to release its Q1 2025 earnings report in late April, which may either exacerbate the share price decline or serve as a catalyst for further growth. The focus will be on cash flow and profitability, as positive free cash flow would signal a recovery from previous losses and demonstrate the company’s ability to manage its debt effectively. Particular attention should be given to aircraft delivery figures, especially for the 737 MAX, as an increase in deliveries would suggest stronger demand and improved operational efficiency. Updates on the 787 Dreamliner production will also be crucial, as delays in deliveries have affected Boeing’s ability to meet deadlines.

The forecast for the coming quarters will allow investors to assess the company’s prospects, order book, and potential risks. The information provided will help gauge how well Boeing is managing its current challenges and whether it has the potential for future growth.