Weak data from Japan opens the way for USDJPY growth

The USDJPY rate is strengthening, while the yen loses ground amid disappointing foreign trade data. The price currently stands at 148.45. Find out more in our analysis for 17 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s trade balance surplus dropped to 153.1 billion yen in June 2025
• Japanese exports fell by 0.5%, marking the second consecutive decline
• USDJPY forecast for 17 July 2025: 150.10

Fundamental analysis

Today, the USDJPY rate continues to rise, with buyers actively seeking to gain ground above the key resistance level at 148.65. Despite a drop of more than 1.5% the previous day, the bulls regained momentum and pushed the pair back into positive territory. The Japanese yen remains under pressure following weak foreign trade data, which reinforces concerns over a potential recession in Japan.

Japan’s trade surplus fell to 153.1 billion yen in June 2025, down from 221.3 billion yen a year earlier, and far below market expectations of a 535.3 billion yen surplus. Exports declined by 0.5%, marking the second consecutive drop and missing the expected 3.4% growth. The deterioration in exports is linked to rising US tariffs, which weakened overseas demand.

This data increases pressure on the yen and raises the likelihood of a bullish scenario for USDJPY today.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate remains within an ascending channel, with the price now consolidated above the upper boundary of the descending corrective channel, indicating growing buying pressure. The USDJPY forecast suggests a potential rebound from current levels with an upside target at 150.10.

Stochastic Oscillator analysis confirms this trend: the signal lines have turned upwards, indicating weakening bearish pressure. A consolidation above 149.35 would further support bullish momentum and open the way to higher targets.

Summary

Following the release of weak Japanese trade data and persistent pressure on the yen, the USDJPY rate shows strong potential for further upside in the near term. USDJPY technical analysis supports the prevailing uptrend with a likely move towards the 150.10 level.