The US dollar continues to strengthen, with the USDJPY rate likely to extend its rise towards the 149.00 mark. Discover more in our analysis for 22 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Leaving its policy rate at 0.5%, the BoJ did not rule out a future hike
- The yen continues to lose ground as the USD strengthens
- USDJPY forecast for 22 September 2025: 149.00
Fundamental analysis
The forecast for 22 September 2025 takes into account that the USDJPY pair is forming a bullish wave and trading near 148.20.
Yoshimasa Hayashi, one of the candidates for Japan’s prime minister, voiced support for the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate-hike strategy. He emphasised that the government now sees the problem not in a strong yen, as in the past, but in its weakness and in inflation, especially that linked to high import costs.
Keeping the key rate unchanged at 0.5% while hinting at possible tightening puts pressure on the yen, fuelling USDJPY’s rise. Markets now see a chance the BoJ could raise its rate to 0.75% in the near term.
Today’s USDJPY forecast takes into account that, following the recent Fed rate cut, the US dollar unexpectedly received support due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Should the USD weaken again, the BoJ may consider further monetary adjustments to counter yen weakness.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY rate tested the lower Bollinger Band, formed a Hammer reversal pattern, and is now trading near 148.20. This setup suggests the pair may continue its upward wave following the signal from the pattern. With the price moving within an ascending channel, the odds favour growth towards the resistance level around 149.00.
At the same time, the USDJPY forecast considers an alternative scenario, where the price corrects towards the 147.80 level before growth.
Summary
Policy moves by the BoJ and Fed continue to shape USDJPY dynamics. Technical analysis points to further growth towards the 149.00 level.
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