The AUDUSD pair climbed to 0.6505. A sharp rally in iron ore prices has become a key support factor. Discover more in our analysis for 18 July 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
- The AUDUSD pair recovers, supported by a rally in iron ore prices
- Pressure on the AUD comes from the RBA’s monetary policy outlook
- AUDUSD forecast for 18 July 2025: 0.6535 and 0.6595
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate recovered to 0.6505, regaining part of the losses from the previous session on the back of a sharp increase in iron ore prices. This came amid expectations of new economic stimulus measures from China.
Iron ore imports into China in June reached their highest level in 2025, driven by active raw material purchases and expectations of additional support for the construction and property sectors, key demand areas for Australian exports.
Optimism grew after Chinese authorities confirmed plans for credit easing and fiscal support to boost infrastructure activity, which directly benefits Australia’s export sector and supports the Australian dollar.
Another contributing factor to AUD's rise was a broader pullback in the US dollar, as investors locked in profits following gains driven by political pressure on the Fed and uncertainty around interest rate policy.
However, AUD may post its first weekly decline in four weeks, as expectations rise for an RBA rate cut in August due to weak labour market data.
The AUDUSD forecast is mixed.
AUDUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair is testing local resistance at 0.6510. The upward move began from the 0.6453 low, where the price found support after a sell-off.
Technically, the pair remains within a volatile sideways range, but signs of buying activity persist. Recent candles show strong growth, indicating attempts to regain control. The price is moving from the lower Bollinger Band towards the middle band, pointing to a short-term correction upwards.
The nearest resistance area is at 0.6535. An upward breakout could open the path to a stronger level at 0.6595, an early monthly high. However, if AUDUSD fails to hold above 0.6500 and comes under pressure again, a retreat towards 0.6453 and 0.6435 may follow.
Summary
The AUDUSD pair has stabilised and may resume gains if the market focuses on supportive factors. The AUDUSD forecast for 18 July 2025 does not rule out a return to 0.6535, with an attempt to reach the peak at 0.6595.
