The AUDUSD pair slipped to 0.6648, with the Australian dollar pressured by employment data. Find out more in our analysis for 18 September 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
- The AUDUSD pair declines on weak labour market figures
- Investors do not expect the RBA to ease policy at the September meeting
- AUDUSD forecast for 18 September 2025: 6578
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate continues to move lower, extending the previous session’s downtrend. On Thursday, the pair fell to 0.6648 after a weak labour market report.
Data showed a decline in employment of 5.4 thousand in August versus expectations of a 21.5 thousand increase. The main driver was a sharp drop in full-time positions by 40.9 thousand. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while the participation rate slipped to 66.8%. Altogether, this signals a gradual weakening of labour market conditions.
Despite the soft data, markets estimate the likelihood of an RBA rate cut on 30 September at only 20%. By November, however, the probability rises to 70% as inflation remains above target and the central bank maintains a cautious stance.
In the US, the Federal Reserve delivered the expected 25-basis-point rate cut. Policymakers signalled the possibility of two additional cuts this year, but only one more in 2026. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed a careful, risk-management approach and no rush to further easing.
The AUDUSD forecast is cautious.
AUDUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair shows a downward correction after testing the 0.6707 resistance level. The recent trading range is narrowing.
The nearest support level is located at 0.6578, with a stronger level at 0.6544. A breakout below these zones would open the way towards 0.6480. Resistance remains at 0.6707, and consolidation above this level would signal continued growth with targets at 0.6740–0.6780.
The Stochastic Oscillator has exited overbought territory, confirming the likelihood of a local correction. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, reflecting consolidation, although the middle band remains pointed upwards, supporting the broader bullish trend.
Overall, the picture indicates sideways dynamics with a bullish bias: the key level for bulls is 0.6578, while for bears it is 0.6707.
Summary
The AUDUSD pair is correcting amid fundamental data. The AUDUSD forecast for today, 18 September 2025, suggests the downside move could continue towards 0.6578.
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