The EURUSD pair is hovering near 1.1660. The market is weighing US GDP data and awaiting the key PCE report. Find more details in our analysis for 29 August 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The EURUSD pair reacts to US data and awaits the key PCE release
- Markets are heavily pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September
- EURUSD forecast for 29 August 2025: 1.1628 or 1.1700
Fundamental analysis
On Friday, the EURUSD pair is trading around 1.1660. Investors are awaiting the release of the PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which should provide insight into future monetary policy.
The July core PCE forecast suggests a 2.9% year-on-year increase. If confirmed, it would mark the fastest pace in five months. Additional pressure came from the revised US Q2 GDP data, which showed stronger growth due to business investment and foreign trade.
On Thursday evening, Fed Governor Christopher Waller supported starting rate cuts as early as next month, saying that he fully expects further steps to bring policy closer to a neutral level.
The dollar index lost more than 2% in August as markets increased bets on monetary easing. Investors now price in an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September.
The EURUSD forecast is moderate.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD H4 chart shows volatile sideways dynamics. The pair is trading within the 1.1581-1.1742 range, where the lower boundary acts as support and the upper as key resistance. In the middle, the 1.1628 level stands out as an intermediate balance point, repeatedly tested in August.
After dipping to 1.1580, the euro rebounded, but growth was capped at 1.1697. Currently, the price is hovering just below the channel’s upper boundary.
Technical indicators appear uncertain. The Stochastic Oscillator has exited overbought territory, turning down and signalling the potential for a local correction. MACD remains near zero, indicating weak momentum. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting accumulation and preparation for a breakout from consolidation.
The EURUSD pair remains in a sideways range, and the next direction will depend on its ability to break through key levels. Consolidation above 1.1740 would open the way for further growth, while a drop below 1.1580 would strengthen bearish pressure.
Summary
The EURUSD pair may break out of its sideways range based on US statistics. The EURUSD forecast for today, 29 August 2025, suggests moves towards either 1.1628 or 1.1700, depending on the news flow.
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