The EURUSD pair strengthened to 1.1657. The market awaits US employment data and news regarding the Federal Reserve. Discover more in our analysis for 7 August 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The EURUSD pair strengthened as investors anticipate a Fed rate cut in September
- Personnel changes at the Federal Reserve unsettle market participants due to uncertainty
- EURUSD forecast for 7 August 2025: 1.1670 and 1.1789
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate rose on Thursday and settled at 1.1657. Investors are evaluating growing expectations of a Fed rate cut and possible leadership changes within the regulator.
The focus is on the fresh data on US initial jobless claims. Previously released weak labour market data increased the likelihood of a rate cut as early as September, with the market also expecting the second step in December.
Personnel changes add to the uncertainty. President Donald Trump is expected to announce his nominee for the seat vacated by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler by the end of the week. He is also considering four potential candidates to replace current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
At the same time, trade risks have escalated. Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, with an exemption for companies that are building in the US. Additionally, tariffs on Indian exports were doubled to 50% in response to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
The EURUSD forecast is moderately positive.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has stabilised at 1.1657 and approached the 1.1670 resistance level. The upward move has continued for several days, with the market now testing a key technical level.
If the breakout above 1.1670 proves sustainable, the pair may rise towards 1.1789, the late June high. Otherwise, a failed attempt to consolidate above this level may trigger a local correction. The nearest support lies around 1.1522, with a deeper support level at 1.1390.
Indicators confirm the current bullish momentum but suggest a potential slowdown. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought territory, signalling a correction risk. While MACD continues to rise, the pace of movement is starting to slow. Meanwhile, the price is moving along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating trend strength but also a higher probability of short-term profit-taking.
Summary
The EURUSD pair is confidently rising, leaving open the possibility of reaching the late June highs. The EURUSD forecast for today, 7 August 2025, suggests a successful move through 1.1670.
