The EURUSD pair has fallen to 1.1487 as investors move away from risk assets. Find more details in our analysis for 5 November 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Risk aversion keeps the EURUSD pair under pressure
- The Federal Reserve appears inclined to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2025
- EURUSD forecast for 5 November 2025: 1.1470 and 1.1430
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1487 on Wednesday. Global equity markets and risk assets remain under pressure amid concerns of overheating in the AI sector and warnings from major Wall Street banks about potential market declines. The US dollar is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in December. Several Fed officials have recently emphasised the need for caution when considering further easing measures.
According to market estimates, the likelihood of a December rate cut has dropped to around 69%, compared to more than 90% a week ago.
Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown, now the longest in history, continues to delay the release of key macroeconomic data, making it difficult to assess the state of the economy.
Investors are awaiting today’s ADP private sector employment report, which could set the short-term tone for the currency market.
The EURUSD forecast is bearish.
EURUSD technical analysis
The H4 chart shows a steady downward movement since mid-October. After testing the 1.1668 resistance level, the EURUSD pair gradually declined, breaking below the 1.1576 support level and consolidating beneath it.
Currently, the price is approaching the key support area near 1.1470. A breakout below this level could open the way towards 1.1430–1.1400. Conversely, a rebound above 1.1576 would be the first sign of a potential reversal.
Technical indicators point to oversold conditions: the Stochastic Oscillator is below 25, suggesting that a short-term upward rebound could occur. However, MACD remains in negative territory, confirming that sellers still dominate the market.
Overall, the EURUSD rate remains within a downward channel, with the bearish trend intact. However, the pair is nearing a potential technical correction zone.
Summary
The EURUSD pair is declining, but a technical rebound may be ahead. The forecast for today, 5 November 2025, suggests a possible move towards 1.1470 and further down to 1.1430.
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