The EURUSD pair continues to strengthen amid rising geopolitical tension and the Fed's dovish tone, with the price currently at 1.1526. Find more details in our analysis for 20 June 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict increases pressure on the US dollar
- The Federal Reserve lowered its economic growth forecast and reiterated plans for rate cuts in 2025
- EURUSD forecast for 20 June 2025: 1.1735
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate has been rising for the second consecutive session. Buyers successfully defended the key support level at 1.1455, which may signal the end of the downward correction and renewed interest in risk assets.
The US dollar comes under mounting pressure due to the intensified conflict between Israel and Iran. Demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated after reports that President Donald Trump gave Iran a final chance to abandon its nuclear program, postponing any military decision for two weeks. This increases uncertainty and weakens the appeal of the USD.
Additional weakness in the US currency comes from the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. The central bank downgraded its economic growth outlook and confirmed plans to cut rates twice by 25 basis points in 2025, further weighing on the USD and supporting today’s EURUSD forecast.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate is moderately strengthening, with buyers maintaining control of the market. The uptrend channel remains intact, and the price has recovered above the EMA-65. Today’s EURUSD forecast expects a rebound from the lower channel boundary and a move towards 1.1735. The Stochastic Oscillator, positioned in the oversold area, suggests a potential new upward wave. The recent candlestick structure also indicates a slowdown in the downward correction, increasing the likelihood of an upward reversal. A breakout above the corrective channel’s upper boundary and consolidation above 1.1565 would validate the bullish scenario.
Summary
The EURUSD pair gains support from geopolitical uncertainty and the Fed’s dovish policy, weakening the US dollar and boosting risk appetite. EURUSD technical analysis points to a high probability of a continued bullish impulse with a target at 1.1735.
