The EURUSD rate came under pressure after the Federal Reserve cut rates as expected and Chairman Jerome Powell delivered cautious remarks. The exchange rate currently stands at 1.1784. Find more details in our analysis for 18 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations
- Jerome Powell emphasised there is no need for accelerated easing
- US economic activity slowed in H1 2025
- EURUSD forecast for 18 September 2025: 1.1910
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD pair is plunging for the second consecutive trading session after the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, fully in line with market forecasts. The decision was supported by all FOMC members, except Governor Stephen Miran, who favoured a deeper 50-basis-point cut.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a cautious stance, describing the move as a risk-management step amid a weakening labour market. He stressed that there is no urgency for accelerated monetary easing. Markets interpreted this as a signal against larger cuts in the near term, which strengthened demand for the US dollar and weighed on the euro.
Recent data indicates a slowdown in US economic activity in the first half of 2025. Job growth has decelerated, unemployment has ticked higher while remaining relatively low, and inflation has accelerated, staying at elevated levels.
EURUSD technical analysis
Despite the sharp pullback, the EURUSD rate remains within an ascending channel, with buyers defending the 1.1780 support level. This suggests there is still room for a rebound.
Today’s EURUSD forecast points to a potential bullish scenario, with the price likely to recover towards 1.1910. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and turning higher, signalling a possible corrective rise.
Consolidation above 1.1845 would reinforce the recovery scenario for the euro against the dollar.
Summary
Despite the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, Jerome Powell’s cautious comments and persistent inflation added to pressure on the EURUSD pair, pushing it lower. However, technical analysis shows upside potential remains, with a recovery towards 1.1910 likely if the pair consolidates above 1.1845.
Open Account
