After reaching a new all-time high, XAUUSD is forming a corrective wave and may test the 3,620 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 18 September 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- The US dollar strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 263 thousand, projected at 241 thousand
- XAUUSD forecast for 18 September 2025: 3,620 and 3,720
Fundamental analysis
The XAUUSD price forecast for 18 September 2025 shows that after testing 3,700 USD, gold pulled back and continues to correct. At this stage, prices are hovering near 3,656 USD per ounce.
Following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut, gold failed to sustain its upward momentum and slipped slightly lower.
Comments from Chairman Jerome Powell shifted expectations for a more dovish path. The Fed stressed that further decisions will be taken ‘meeting by meeting’ and did not rule out another rate adjustment before the end of the year.
The dollar initially weakened after the cut but quickly recovered, putting pressure on gold, especially for foreign currency holders.
Meanwhile, demand in China is declining as retail investors increasingly favour equities, reducing purchases of jewellery, bars, and coins.
US initial jobless claims may decline in the current report. The previous reading was 263 thousand, and forecasts point to a drop to 241 thousand. While the shift is moderate, results in line with or better than expectations could support the US dollar and pressure XAUUSD prices lower.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD quotes have formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. The metal is currently in a corrective wave, following the signal from the pattern. Since prices remain within an ascending channel and given geopolitical data, they could continue their upward momentum once the correction is complete. The target for the correction could be 3,620 USD.
However, XAUUSD technical analysis for today also considers an alternative scenario, with prices rising to 3,720 USD without testing the support level.
Looking ahead, the bullish trend remains intact, with the psychological level of 3,800 USD as the next potential target.
Summary
Gold remains in the spotlight after the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and an all-time high above 3,700 USD. However, the dollar’s rebound and Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks cooled optimism, prompting a price pullback.
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