The increase in initial jobless claims in the US may trigger a rise in XAUUSD quotes towards the 3,400 USD mark. Details – in our analysis for 3 July 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Number of initial jobless claims in the US: previous value – 236K, forecast – 240K
- US Services PMI: previous value – 53.1, forecast – 53.1
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 3 July 2025: 3,400
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental analysis for 3 July 2025 considers that the gold (XAUUSD) price, having completed its correction, continues to strengthen, trading above the 3,300 USD per troy ounce level. The rise in XAUUSD quotes continues amid uncertainty in US-China trade relations.
The number of initial jobless claims in the US reflects the number of people who filed for benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator assesses the state of the labour market, and its increase indicates a rise in unemployment.
The previous value was 236K, so today's forecast for XAUUSD is negative for the dollar – the number of claims is expected to rise to 240K. The change is minor, but if the published data matches expectations or is worse, it may affect XAUUSD quotes.
The US Services PMI is forecast to remain at its previous value of 53.1. If the actual PMI comes out lower than expected, this could further weaken the US dollar's position.
The forecast for XAUUSD on 3 July 2025 looks quite optimistic – quotes have every chance to continue the upward trend and reach the 3,400 USD mark.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a reversal Hammer pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, it is forming an upward wave within the pattern's signal realisation. Considering that XAUUSD quotes remain within the ascending channel, further development of the upward trend can be expected. At this stage, the target for growth may be the resistance at 3,400 USD.
However, today’s technical analysis for XAUUSD also suggests a second market scenario involving a correction to the 3,320 USD level before rising.
The possibility of strengthening the upward trend remains, and XAUUSD may soon move towards the 3,500 USD mark.
Summary
Against the backdrop of weakening US economic indicators, XAUUSD technical analysis suggests that quotes will rise towards the 3,400 USD mark after the correction is completed.
