Forex. Euro dollar forecast (EUR / USD) as of today 03/31/2017: Euro remains under pressure in the cross pair euro / pound

Results of the last trading day:

On Thursday, the euro / dollar closed another decline. For three days, the European currency fell against the US dollar by 190 pips to 1.0673, the pound - by 89 points to 0.8560.

The euro quickly became cheaper in the British pound after the UK launch of exit procedures of the EU on 29 March. Based on cash flow, investors convert euros to the pound. Apparently they believe that Brekzit will not be hard for the UK economy. The procedure should be completed in 2019. A collapse of the euro may be in cross-country associated with the completion of the 1st quarter. Strong levels, from which the price can fight back, passed. The yield on 10-year bonds rose by 1.17% to 2,413%.

Expectations for today:

Today is Friday - the end of the week, month and quarter 1. The forecast did not do well as a two-day decline of the euro in cross-country breaks all the technical picture in the main euro / dollar. Trying to fend off the buyers fibourovnya 38.2% (an increase from 1.0495 to 1.0906) - 1.0749, was not successful. The euro / dollar fell to 1.0672. Immediate support, from which we can expect upward correction 1.0628 - 1.0652.

News of the day (GMT + 3): The  

10:55 Germany - change in the number of unemployed in February;

11:30 United Kingdom - the balance of payments for Q4. 2016 GDP final increment of 4 sq. 2016 index of business activity in the services sector in January, revised business investment 4 kv.2016;

12:00 Eurozone - preliminary index of consumer prices in March, a preliminary core consumer price index for March;

15:30 Canada - GDP growth in January. US - Basic price index for personal consumption expenditures for February, personal spending in February, personal incomes for February;

16:45 USA - Chicago PMI index for March; 

17:00 USA - Speech by FOMC member Kashkari, revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in March, revised data on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan in March;

Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView

Intraday outlook: at least - n / a, maximum - n / a, closing - n / a.

On Thursday, the euro / dollar closed lower. 135-th degree (1.0750) and fibouroven 38.2% (1.0749) could not stop the vendors. Against the background of growth in yields of US bonds and reduce the cross pair EUR / GBP, EUR / USD dropped to 1.0672.

March 29 after running the UK release procedures of the EU euro broke the trend line at 1.0782. By a measured target course turned in the area of ​​1.0630 (comments graph with markings left). Apparently, investors are not much concerned with the activation of Art. 50 Treaty of Lisbon, since redeem pound.

Fibouroven 38.2% passed. Level of 61.8% through 1.0652, 257-th degree - through 1.0646. Emerges a new support zone between 1.0628 and 1.0652 levels. Current EUR / USD - 1.0676.

Since today closed the month and the 1st quarter, the forecast did not do. The market can expect anything. It is worth noting that the trend correction was 22.5 degrees. At the moment it passes through the level of 1.0698. If bulls proskochat it, then there is a possibility of breakdown of the trend line of 1.0869, followed by reduction to the line lb 1,0724.

Positive factors for the euro (+):

Fundamental:

(+) The head of the ECB Mario Draghi made it clear that the Central Bank may not need to implement further stimulus measures to revive the European economy. From April to December 2017 the ECB reduced the monthly asset purchases to 80 billion to 60 billion euros;

(+) The leaders discussed the issue of the ECB, interest rates before the end of the quantitative easing program may it be raised;

(+) E.Novotny ECB spokesman said that it is possible to increase the interest rate on deposits before start raising the refinancing rate;

(+) 24 March D.Tramp took the law on Obamacare health reform from the agenda of the meeting of the US Congress;

Technical (short-term):

(+) As of 21/03/17, on the Chicago Exchange significantly increased large speculators long positions and cut short. Long-positions increased by 10.138 thousand., To 158.646 thousand. Contracts while the Short-positions decreased by 10,325 thousand., To 176.891 thousand. Contracts. The net short position decreased from 38.707 to 18.245 thousand. Contracts. Small speculators increased their long positions to 3,811 thousand to 65.280 thousand contracts, short positions -.. To 4.779 thousand to 63.093 thousand contracts... The net long position fell from 3,158 to 2,187 thousand contracts.;

(+) In Asia, the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 0.22% to 2.413%;

(+) EURGBP (W): CCi (20), AO, AU - directed upwards;

(+) EURUSD (M): Stochastic (5,3,3) - is directed upwards;

(+) EURUSD (W): Stochastic (5,3,3), AO, AC and CCI (20) - directed upwards;

Negative factors for the euro (-):

Fundamental:

(-) The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren - increase possible at every second meeting. He sees three more rate hikes this year;

(-) A representative of the US Federal Reserve D.Uilyams - possible 2-3 rate hikes this year. Does not rule out a greater number of promotions;

(-) The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Kaplan - three rate hikes this year - a good base scenario;

(-) A representative of the US Federal Reserve Mester - you need to reduce the bond portfolio later this year;

(-) in the Thursday, March 30, according to CME Group's FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike has increased from 4.3% to 6.4% in June, in May - from 52.9% to 54.0% in July - with 58.8% to 60.8%;

(-) Political risks in Europe (elections in France);

Technical factors (short term):

(-) According myfxbook Short / Long The proportion 7:34 in MSK is 27% / 72%, lots: 17069/44373 (the day before - 23661/25376) position: 41132/67660 (the day before - 54075/51699) ;

(-) The yield on 10-year US bonds: 2.413% (for 30.03.17: + 1.17%);

(-) The yield on 10-year German bonds: 0.340% (per 03.30.17: -1.16%);

(-) EURGBP (W): Stochastic (5,3,3) - is directed downward;

(-) EURGBP (D): AU, AO, CCI (20), Stochastic (5,3,3) - directed downwards;

(-) EURUSD (M): AO and AC - facing down;

(-) EURUSD (D): AO, AU, CCI (20), Stochastic (5,3,3) - directed downwards;

It lays in price:

(-) Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe said the refusal to participate in elections;

(-) US Fed representative Evans expects 2-3 raise key interest rates in 2017. Next Fed raising rates would make a decision in June;

(-) The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Harker said that the Central Bank will continue to gradually raise rates for 2017;

(+) Francois Bayrou - the leader of "Democratic Movement", refused to participate in the presidential race in favor of an independent candidate Emmanuel Makron;

(+) With Marine Le Pen lifted parliamentary immunity (decision taken for political reasons);

(+) US President D.Tramp not pleased with the strong dollar;

(+) Threshold allowable US debt of $ 20.1 trillion. It can be achieved in March 2017 year. This will be a headache D.Trampa new president;

(+) The Greek government and international lenders have made progress in the negotiations on the second evaluation of the reform program;

(+) E.Novotny ECB spokesman said that it is possible to increase the interest rate on deposits before start raising the refinancing rate;

(+) The ECB Representative Lautenshleger - you need to prepare for a change in policy of the ECB;

Analytics Alpari Vladislav Antonov