Events forex today:
02.30 MSK. Japan: Index 'Tankan' for large enterprises of industrial sphere in the 1st quarter (previous value of 8; 13 forecast).
11:30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the manufacturing for March (the previous value of 54.6, forecast 54.6).
17:00 MSK. US: ISM manufacturing index for March (the previous value of 57.7, forecast 57).
Forex. Euro Dollar EUR / USD forecast for today 04/03/2017
The past trading week was a dollar sign, and I expect this trend to continue into the new five-day period. Bulls on the euro, which relied on the acceleration of growth in inflation, were out of work - for CPI to preliminary data in March fell from 2% to 1.5% in annual terms. Moreover, core inflation growth rate has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months. Core PCE Price Index in U.S. following February fixed at 1.8% g / g.
The last two months in a row on this indicator fixed rate of 1.8%, the highest in four years. This indicator is closely watching the US Federal Reserve, when estimates of inflation perspectives. Thus, we get a simple "math": in the euro area inflation expectations declining in the US, by contrast, are growing. This brings to mind a recent speech prominent members of the FOMC - Rosengren and Williams, who spoke about the need for an additional 3-fold increase in the discount rate, instead of the planned two-fold increase. Debt market shows that the decline of the euro has not been completed - the yield differential on 10-year German government bonds and US reduced, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in the German assets.
EUR / USD recommendation 03.04.2017: Sell 1,06 79 / 1.0720, and take profit 1,0630.
Forex. Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 03/04/2017
Today the pair Pound Dollar formed a mixed background. On the one hand, the pair may test area 26 figures on a background of positive data on manufacturing PMI UK sector. The large-scale devaluation of the pound, which began immediately after the announcement of a referendum on the total Brexit in June 2016, increasing the competitiveness of British products in foreign markets. You can not ignore the strong decline in the cross-rate EUR / GBP, which also has a positive effect on the cost of the British. On the other hand, the positive statistics from the US Core PCE Price Index, together with falling yield spread on 10-year UK government bonds and the US, can reassure bears for opening Sell positions at the current levels.
GBP / USD recommendation 03.04.2017 : flat 1.2500 -1.2600.
Foreks.Dollar yen forecast USD / JPY today 04/03/2017
Purchases pair based on the upward trend. Investors are awaiting the release of positive index 'Tankan', which usually has a positive effect on the value of Japanese equities and a negative impact on the value of the yen. Devaluation of the national currency of Japan plays the exporting hand - this factor yavl is Busy main driver of growth in the manufacturing sector is now Japan. Macroeconomic data from the US we receive is still positive, which in turn makes it possible to count on continuation of the bullish trend in the US stock market, which is also positive for the pair USD / JPY.
USD / JPY recommendation 3/4/2017 : Buy 111,25 / 110.75 and take profit 112,20.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company analyst FreshForex
