Forex Events today:
15.30 MSK. US: Industrial Production for February (the previous value of -0.3% m / m forecast 0.3% m / m).
17:00 MSK. US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for March (the previous value of 96.3, forecast 97.1).
Foreks.Evro dollar EUR / USD forecast for today 17/03/2017
In the first half of trading on the foreign exchange market, the euro dollar could demonstrate the growth of quotations in the area of 1.0790 / 1.0825 against the background of the expansion of the differential yields of German and US 10-year government bonds. For the trend in the debt market has changed in favor of US assets, it is necessary that the yield was higher than Treasuries 2.63% per annum (maximum of the last three months). Now the bonds traded at a yield of 2.53% and this is a negative factor for the dollar.
In the second half of the session, two important report will be released in the United States, which may cause rise of yield on Treasury bonds.
Firstly, it is possible to expect growth of industrial production, with increased business activity in the manufacturing sector. PMI ISM index following February reached the highest level since August 2014, with the growth rate observed 6 months in a row.
Secondly, the report on consumer confidence Institute of Michigan can also please the traders positive data amid rising employment and average earnings. Recall that the average hourly wage in the United States by the end of February increased to a level of 2.8% y / y vs. 2.6% y / y in the previous month.
EUR / USD recommendation 17.03.2017: Sell 1,0790 / 1,0 825 and take profit 1,0705.
Forex. Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 17/03/2017
Before the opening of trading in the US dollar in the pair pound players should not expect growth of quotations on the background of positive rhetoric BoE management. Mark Carney at a press conference, warned of inflationary risks this summer. This is partly due to higher energy prices. It was also noted that the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 1975. A positive surprise for the market was the fact that one member of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to increase rates by 0.25%. Kristin Forbes said that in the next three months, the consumer price index will exceed the level of 2%, and therefore, need to raise interest rates today. As the risks of the Bank of England has noted reduction in the growth rate of wages, which may cause a decline in consumer spending and a reduction in GDP.
As noted above, the United States in the second half of trading traders can please positive data that may cause market participants take profits on long positions ahead of the weekend. Therefore, one can expect down rollback quotations.
GBP / USD recommendation 17.03.2017: Buy 1 , 2340 / 1.2300, and take profit 1,2385.
Forex. Dollar Yen Forecast USD / JPY today 03/17/2017
Two reasons for traders to wait for the growth of USD / JPY.
First, on the yield differential growth is observed again the bond market for American and Japanese paper, which is a positive factor for the dollar yen pair buyers. Given the fact that today we can expect positive data on industrial production and consumer confidence in the US - the differential will expand even more.
Second, as the US stock market on Thursday, the leaders of growth and were shares of small and mid-cap, and the index of "fear" the VIX ended the day lower by 3%. In the largest decline on Thursday was "protective" paper utilities. This positioning suggests continued "risk appetite", which traditionally has a positive effect on the value of the pair USD / JPY.
USD / JPY recommendation on 3/17/20 17 : Buy 113,20 / 112,80 and take profit 113,80.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
