Forex Events today:
11:30 MSK. UK: Changing retail volume based on fuel costs of May (the previous value of 4% g / g; forecast 1.6% g / g).
14.00 MSK. United Kingdom: The decision on the basic interest rate of the Bank of England in May (the previous value of 0.25%, 0.25% forecast).
Forex rate forecast for the EUR / USD today 06/15/2017
As expected, the Fed raised the rate by 0.25%, signaled to investors that there is a possibility of another rate hike this year. The futures market in Chicago evaluates such an outcome less than 35% - investors believe the FOMC will no longer raise rates in 2017. Why such pessimism? Blame yesterday's report on inflation in the United States in May. The consumer price index fell below 2%, the first time since November 2016. Since we are now witnessing decrease of oil prices, inflation in the United States before the end of the summer will be below 2%. It is worth noting that the increase in interest rates has not caused a strong growth in yields of US treasury bonds - for the dollar is a bad signal.
EUR USD traders recommendation: Buy 1,1210 / 1,1170 and take profit 1,1280.
Forex forecast pair GBP / USD today 15/06/2017
For the sterling main event of the announcement of the results of the meeting today, the Bank of England. The rapid growth of inflation to its highest level in the last four years does not leave the controller no choice but to start thinking about the question of gradually increasing interest rates. Investors now do not expect a change in monetary policy. Optionally, the Bank of England will raise rates this year. But today, Mark Karni may declare that the central bank may raise rates if necessary. For investors, this sentence is enough to start buying the British pound in the short term.
GBP / USD traders recommendation: Buy 1,2730 / 1,2699 and take profit 1,2800.
Forex forecast for today, the pair USD / JPY 15.06.2017
Today, the players on the USD / JPY pair are two reasons for the sales.
First, the debt market yield spread of 10-year government bonds of the United States and Japan shrinking, which is a negative factor for the pair. Even yesterday's Fed rate increase did not help to correct a negative trend.
The second, on the world's leading stock exchanges observed outflows from the stock, which in turn will support the Japanese yen as a funding currency №1 in carry trade operations. VIX fear index on Wednesday closed trading rising by 2.1%, which "bears" on hand.
USD / JPY traders recommendation: Sell 109,60 / 109,99 and take profit 108,95.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company analyst FreshForex
