Forex. Forecast for today 09.22.2016: Euro sales dollar, USD / JPY - buying
Foreks.prognoz weather on September 22, 2016
The main event for traders today:
Japan. Bank Holiday
15.30 MSK. US. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in September (the previous value of 260K; 261K forecast)
17.00 MSK. USA: Sales of housing in the secondary market in August (the previous value of -3.2% m / m forecast 1.1% m / m).
Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast EUR / USD today 22/09/2016
Players in the euro against the dollar, today, in the first half of trading on the foreign exchange market should not expect growth amid falling US Federal Reserve at the discount rate forecast for the period 2017-2018 gg.
The regulator also lowered its estimates for inflation and GDP, which is not surprising, since a high rate of US currency and prevent inflation and exports and corporate profits decline in annual terms last four quarters. Although in 2016 there was no revision of the forecast: the FOMC set a time to increase the rate at the end of the year. Moreover, at the last meeting on Wednesday, three representatives of the FED George Mester and Rosengren argued for a rate hike in the federal funds. This situation has arisen for the first time this year, as before only Fed President Kansas City, George was set for a rate increase, the rest of the committee members do not support it. Two of her colleagues also pointed to the need to tighten monetary policy. Is this good or bad for the dollar? Most good about, as investors have recently heavily doubt that the Fed will raise rates at all this year. It is worth noting the fact that the FOMC inaction has caused a new wave of purchases of risky assets, which is a negative factor for the euro as the currency used to finance carry trade operations.
Euro Dollar recommendations: on the euro dollar today investors should sell the pair Sell the growth of quotations to 1.1210 / 1.1235 and take profit at around 1,1 160 .
Forex. The currency pair Pound Dollar forecast for today GBP / USD 22.09.2016
Today, for the pair GBP / USD formed a mixed background. The growth of "risk appetite" after a meeting of the US Federal Reserve is likely embolden bulls for opening long positions. A pair of heavily oversold and correction up could be helpful to the large players, which shorts the pound on expectations reduce the key rate by the Bank of England in the fourth quarter. Although yesterday's data on oil market contribute to the growth of pessimism: Russia and Saudi Arabia this week to increase the volume of oil to historic highs, and the US continues to gradually increase production, which at the beginning of the year has been at low levels. In this regard, the oil can not be excluded a new wave of sales, which ultimately will cause the fall of the British currency.
Pound Dollar recommendations: on the pair pound dollar today is worth waiting for trade Investors sideways 1.2970 -1.3070
Forex. Currency pair ollar yen forecast USD / JPY today 09/22/2016
The Bank of Japan has disappointed markets reluctance to introduce new incentives, but reiterated the possible additional measures if necessary. Whether the need arises in the near future? Probably yes, since the downward trend of oil, which is expected in the fourth quarter, even more twirl deflationary spiral in Japan. In the oil market situation is somewhat clearer: Russia has reported yesterday about the historical maximum of oil production at the level of 11.75 million barrels.. The volume of production in Saudi Arabia as at historical highs, at 10.67 million. Barrels. And it happens 5 days prior to the forum in Algeria, where oil from the expected measures aimed at rising prices. Let us remember that it was in April this year, when the summit was held in Qatar: when the level of oil production in Russia amounted to 10.92 mnl. barrels, and the Saudis mined 10.22 million. barrels and Brent quotes were then at the level of $ 43 / barrel.Thus, the volume of production in two major world producers has been increased by 0.83 and 0.45 million. Barrels respectively. And now, when the total volume of production of the two states increased by 1.28 million. Barrels, and quotes 10% higher than the April level is it possible to expect any action on oil? Probably not. Given that production in the US uveoichivaetsya (growth observed last two weeks), and the driving season ends in a few days, we will see the bad reports from the United States in October, which will put pressure on black gold. Against this background, inflation expectations in Japan will again demonstrate the decline and monetary authorities will have no choice but to introduce new measures. And as in the camp of the US Federal Reserve increases the number of supporters of early rate hikes, the current levels are attractive enough to open long positions.
Dollar Yen recommendations : Investors in the dollar against the yen is worth buying a pair USD / JPY Buy reduce quotations to 100.20 / 99.80 and take profit at the level of 101.25.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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