The main event for traders today:
USA: The balance of foreign trade balance for October (the previous value -36.4B; -41.5B forecast).
Forex forecast the currency pair euro dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 06/12/2016
In the forex trading on Monday, the euro against the dollar has updated a minimum since April 2015 and then the market began a strong growth of quotations of the single European currency. What is it: a deep correction or stolen from the trend? Most likely this is the first, and for good reason:
The first reason, "risk appetite" is observed in the world, which in turn have a negative for the euro as a funding currency. On Monday, the world's leading stock markets and high-yield cross rates closed in the "green zone". fear index VIX for the day slipped by more than 10%.
The second reason, published yesterday in the area of release on the business activity of the US ISM services from powerful data pleased investors. PMI index came out at the highest level since October 2015. Level 57.2 n. Assumes GDP growth of 3.3% in November. Initially, the market was laying more modest growth. Spread indicators of business activity the United States and the euro area as of November the newly expanded and is 3.4 n., V. 2 p., In October. It is impossible to ignore the rumors that circulate by Bloomberg: many respondents economists expect December 8 from Mario Draghi hints at extension of QE program until the fall of 2017. I personally believe this is not enough, because if Draghi will say so, then early next year, . But at least these rumors also against the euro. Thus, you must use this to build up the euro short positions.
EUR / USD recommendation 06.12.2016: Sell 1,0775 / 1,0825 with take profit 1,0700.
Forex currency pair Pound Dollar (GBP / USD) the forecast for today 06/12/2016
Today investors couple Pound Dollar There are three reasons for the sales:
The first reason, the bond market, where the yield differential of the British and US 10-year government bonds on Monday set a new low this year. Currency and credit markets are closely correlated and the pound must demonstrate a decrease in prices. And the longer the British currency resists, the stronger will be its downfall.
The second reason for trading raw materials necessary to wait for the correction of oil, it has a positive impact on the value of the dollar. On Monday, news feeds were two negative news for the market of black gold: the increased volume of the hedging of US oil production and growth in OPEC as of November by 1.1%, to the level of 34.19 million b / d..The news is negative in the short term. They should not be regarded as a signal to the turning point of the upward trend.
The third reason, a report on the US balance of payments for October will be released probably a little better than expected median that also support the demand for the dollar. In the third quarter of this year, the dollar index basket showed stability and this is a positive factor for the trade balance.
GBP / USD recommendation 06.12.2016: Sell 1,2740 / 1,2780 with take profit 1,2650.
Forex forecast the currency pair Dollar Yen (USD / JPY) 06.12.2016 Today
The increase in demand for risky assets allows you to open Buy position and wait for the new wave of the uptrend. On Monday, the US stock market in the leaders of growth were the paper tech sector, utilities sector, which is considered protective, showed minimal growth. This positioning signals to maintain "risk appetite", which is negative for the yen as a funding currency. In the credit markets, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rising towards their taxes from Japan, which is also positive for the dollar.
USD / JPY recommendations 06.12.2016: Buy 113,60 / 113,15 to take profit 114,30.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
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