Weather for the Forex December 8, 2016
The main event today:
15.45 MSK. Eurozone: Publication of the ECB decision on the basic interest rate in December (the previous value of 0.00%; 0.00% forecast).
16.30 MSK. Eurozone: ECB Press Conference.
16.30 MSK. US: The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in December (the previous value of 268K, 272K forecast).
Forex forecast for today EUR / USD 09.12.2016
Today investors the main event of the day the ECB meeting. Many European banks believe that the monetary authorities today announced the extension of QE program by 6 months.
Bloomberg News survey of economists investment banks with Wall Street and the 86% of respondents said they expected just such a scenario by Mario Draghi. It is also necessary to look at the dynamics of the European stock markets if investors expect new incentives, it will actively buy stocks. Insiders are always ahead of the curve. Euro Stoxx 50 index since the beginning of the week weight by 4.08%. Other major stock indexes of the planet this week, also show growth, but more modest: Britain's FTSE 100 rose 2.54%, the US S & P 500 by 1.92%, Japan's Nikkei 225 0.38%. Thus, market participants almost unanimously speak about the new incentives. In the case of the euro such an outcome would be carried out, and we will see a sharp drop in prices. The single European currency since the beginning of the week shows a correction ignores the growth of the "risk appetite" and in this context, the euro becomes inflated. I admit that before the reduction pair may take up to 1.08, as the ECB meeting is almost always accompanied by a surge in volatility.
EUR / USD recommendation on 08.12.2016: Sell 1,0745 / 1,0800 and put take profit 1,0662.
Forex forecast for today GBP / USD 08.12.2016
Two reasons for traders to wait for reducing the pound:
First, the credit markets the yield on 10-year UK government bonds falls in relation to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which will put pressure on the sterling exchange rate. Industrial production at Albion on the results of October decreased by 1.1% yoy, the highest level since December 2015.
Second, the black gold of the second day in a row demonstrates the correction, which in turn is positive for the US currency, as the cost of raw materials denominated in dollars. The oil market did not show growth even in the positive on US stocks data. This is a signal to the fact that investors consider the current levels are sufficiently high and are continuing technical correction.
GBP / USD recommendation on 08.12.2016: Sell 1,2620 / 1,2660 and put take profit 1,2555.
Forex forecast for today USD / JPY 08.12.2016
"The appetite for risk" is still quite strong in the financial markets that will support the demand for the pair. Apparently investors have decided to drive stock markets as high as possible before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve to calm then take profits on long positions. S & P500 index is set on the eve of a fresh historical high, while the VIX fear again finished trading in the "red zone". The Japanese stock market has not yet updated the high of December 1, but came close to this mark and taking it abroad only question of time. I think that this level of the Nikkei 225 will take today that embolden bulls for opening long positions in the pair USD / JPY.
USD / JPY recommendations on 08.12.2016: Buy 113,90 / 113,60 and put take profit 114,45.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
