Events to which you should pay attention today:
16.30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for December (the previous value of 0.1% m / m forecast 0.5% m / m).
16.30 MSK. United States: Producer price index for December (the previous value of 1.3% y / y; the forecast of 1.6% y / y).
18.00 MSK. US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in January (the previous value of 98.2, forecast 98.6).
Forex rate now forecast at EUR / USD 13.01.2017
Players pair euro dollar today in forex, there are two reasons for reducing wait EUR / USD on the back of positive macroeconomic data from the United States.
The first reason, we can see a good report on retail sales, as the consumer confidence index from the CB in December was at a maximum of thirteen. Secondly, the price ISM index for the manufacturing sector in December increased by 11 p., To the level of 65.5%, which in turn allows the calculation of the output of positive data on producer price index.
The second reason, the growth of average hourly wage in the United States as of December by 2.9% in annual terms could spur consumer activity in January and, in turn, signals the growth of the index University of Michigan. In general, these statistics would indicate a rise in inflation expectations, which again will cause market participants to talk about the inevitability of the Fed raising interest rates in the near future.
EUR / USD recommendation: Sell 1,0630 / 1,0670 and take profit 1,0550.
Forex forecast for the pound dollar (GBP / USD) as of today 13/01/2017
As noted earlier, the United States today can please Traders positive macroeconomic statistics, which has a positive impact on the value of the dollar. Because today there is no longer important events, it is in the US trading session should expect volatility surge. The dynamics of the debt market also indicates an increase in bearish sentiment: the yield on 10-year UK government bonds is reduced in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in British assets. Yesterday I talked about the correction in the pair, and a correction took place. Now players should wait for the fall of quotations.
GBP / USD recommendation: Sell 1,2175 / 1,2225 and take profit 1,2100.
Forex rate forecast for the dollar, the yen USD / JPY today 13/01/2017
Today, forex traders are two reasons to open Buy positions on the dollar yen pair.
First, the positive statistics from the US will help to expand the differential yields on 10-year US government bonds, and Japan, which increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets.
Second, the US stock market investors on Thursday in the second half of the session is actively building up long positions expecting positive corporate bank accounts. Let me remind you that today will report three largest banks: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America. The market is waiting for positive data on the background growth of the net interest margin. In this connection, we can expect the uptrend in the stock market, which will provide additional support for the pair.
USD / JPY recommendation: Buy 114,40 / 114,00 and take profit 115,30.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
