The main event today:Forex. Weather forecast on October 14, 2016
15.30 MSK. United States: Producer price index for September (the previous value of 0.0% m / m forecast 0.2% m / m).
15.30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for September (the previous value of -0.3% m / m forecast 0.6% m / m).
17:00 MSK. US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in October (the previous value of 91.2, forecast 92.1).
Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast for today EUR / USD 14.10.2016
On the eve of the dollar index USDX basket dipped by 0.4%, but the overall upward trend is still relevant, and I assume that this movement is a correction, not a reversal.
Today, in my opinion, will have a strong support to the dollar against the backdrop of statistics from the United States, the report on retail sales may please investors strong data on the background of growth in consumer activity according to the Michigan Institute and CB. It should also be noted that in September, by 4.4% m / m increased sales of cars, and this component accounts for about 25% retail sales. The release of the Producer Price Index can also make a pleasant surprise on the background of rising commodity prices. In this connection, we can expect an expansion of the differential yields on 10-year US and German government bonds, which will increase demand for the dollar.
EUR / USD recommendation : forex players today is to sell the pair at Sell on the growth of quotations to 1.1060 / 1.1090 and take profit at around 1,0 980 .
Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast for today GBP / USD 14.10.2016
Today, the pound could get the bounce from a stronger dollar. For bears today there are two reasons that can be used to open a Sell position.
First , the dynamics of the credit markets, where yields on 10-year UK government bonds is reduced in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in British assets.
Second , as noted earlier, in the afternoon we can expect the release of positive data from the US, which will also support greenbacks. Published on the eve of the US report on the oil market showed growth stocks at 4.85 million. Barrels while the Department of Energy recorded a drop in oil production on the 17 th. Barrels / day for the week. In Alaska, production was up 19 th. Barrels / day in other States decreased in the amount of 36 thousand. Barrels / day.Production in Alex begins to approach the level of a year ago, and we can expect that the same dynamics will be observed in other States, as oil prices are now quite comfortable for producers. On the eve of the French bank Societe Generale said that his clients are actively selling Call options and Put options bought wishing to hedge against a possible fall in prices for black gold. In this regard, if the quotes Brent today fall below yesterday's low (51.27), then the pressure on the pair intensify as between oil and GBP / USD there is a strong historical correlation.
GBP / USD recommendation : Traders pound should sell the pair GBP / USD on the Sell growth of quotations to 1.2250 / 1.2300 and take profit at the level of 1.2140.
Forex. Currency pair yen dollar forecast for today USD / JPY 14.10.2016
The yield on US Treasury bonds begins adjusted downwards, which is a negative factor for the pair. However, I think that this is a temporary trend, as investors have no choice as to buy the pair on pullbacks. Speakers at this week Fed officials spoke of the inevitability of tighter monetary policy in the current year. Despite the fact that the yield spread on 10-year US government bonds and on the eve of Japan decreased, but still remain in the five-month high, which implies a growth of quotations from current levels at 300-400 points.
USD / JPY recommendations: a pair Dollar Yen Investors should buy the pair Buy's reduction of quotations to 103.60 / 103.35 and take profit at the level of 104.35.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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