The main event today:
18.00 MSK. USA: Sales of housing in the secondary market in November (the previous value of 2.0% m / m; the forecast -1.8% m / m).
18.30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in December (previous value -2563K; -2425K forecast).
Forex forecast the currency pair euro dollar (EUR / USD) on 12/21/2016
The foreign exchange market, the euro dollar forex shocked yesterday a new thirteen-year minimum (1.0351), then the sellers started profit-taking .. Today at the auctions, this dynamic is likely to continue, and the Euro players will see another wave of growth of quotations.
Prior to the Catholic Christmas just a few days and it is important for investors as it is possible to close some positions faster, to translate the "paper" profits in the cache. American statistics also has this movement. Investors should wait for a negative report on housing sales in the secondary market in November, due to lower volume of mortgage lending. Mortgages - the main driver of real estate market in November, lending volume decreased by 14.2% compared to the previous month. Wines, rising interest rates on 30-year loans from 3.71% to 4.23%. Weak statistics will put pressure on the greenback in the near term. Speaking specifically about the correction in the dollar-euro pair breaking the downward trend is not. On the global spread for the euro up, you can forget at least until spring. Multidirectional Fed and ECB monetary policy at the beginning of 2017 will bring the pair to new lows. Perhaps investors see par. That parity, which they say many traders last year.
EUR / USD trading recommendations: the Buy 1,0400 / 1,0360 ta ! Ke -profit 1.0450.
Forex forecast the currency pair Pound Dollar (GBP / USD) on 12/21/2016
Couple pound dollar in the foreign exchange market in the first half of trading may show some growth on profit taking on short positions. This growth is the players on the pound should be used for building Sell position for two reasons.
First, the credit market has set a fresh low of the year yield spread of British and US 10-year government bonds, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in the United Kingdom assets.
Second, after the release in America report on oil reserves worth waiting for reducing the prices of Brent and WTI on the background of increase in production of black gold, this will put additional pressure on the Briton quotes. Baker Hughes once again reported about the growth of the number of drilling rigs in the United States for 12 units up to level 510. Recall that at least one year was 13 May at the level of 318 rigs. Thus, for seven months, the number of drilling increased by 60.3%.
GBP / USD trading recommendations: Sell 1,2400 / 1,24 35 take profit 1,2360.
Forex forecast the currency pair Dollar Yen (USD / JPY) on 12/21/2016
Between the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 and the pair USD / JPY is observed raskorrelyatsiya. The first tool was released to new highs, the second, though moderately, but still corrected. This trend indicates that investors prefer uh odit in the yen before the Christmas holidays. The Bank of Japan on the basis of its session on December 20 is not introduced changes in monetary policy and said that the devaluation of the yen 18% is not any critical factor for the economy. On the contrary, it was noted that these dynamics will help to strengthen the inflation trend. Today, players should expect the continuation of the downward trend on profit taking on long positions, as has been noted earlier, in the second half of the day will probably report a weak US housing sales in the secondary market in November.
USD / JPY trading recommendation: Sell 117,75 / 118 , 15 take profit 117,15.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
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