Events to which you should pay attention today:
17:00 MSK. USA: Sales of housing in the secondary market in February (the previous value of 3.3% m / m; the forecast -2.3% m / m).
17:30 MSK. US data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy in March.
Forex. Euro Dollar (EUR / USD) the forecast for today 22/03/2017
In the morning, we should expect a new maximum 2 February (1.0828). in the last two weeks the market ignores the positive macroeconomic data from the United States, indicating the presence of a large number of buyers in the euro market. Tuesday published a positive report on the balance of payments of the USA for the 4th quarter 2016, however, instead of strengthening the strong dollar, we saw only the short-term market reaction. Moreover, the yield spread on 10-year German government bonds and US fell below 2%, for the first time since January 30 this year.
Another positive factor for the single European currency - is a growth index VIX fear in the US and the DAX in Germany Vol that signals a demand for safe assets, to which the single currency concerns the last two years.
EUR / USD recommendation 22.03.2017: Buy 1,0800 / 1,0770 and take profit 1,0835.
Forex. Pound Dollar (GBP / USD) the forecast for today 22/03/2017
Yesterday's data on inflation in the UK in February a surprise: the final figure is higher at 2.3% in annual terms. My baseline scenario assumed Bole modest growth in the consumer price index to the level of 2%. Therefore, now it is necessary to make adjustments in the trading plan. CPI jumped primarily due to the food component, and rising import prices, due to the strong devaluation of the pound. Spread indices US and UK CPI fell from 0.7% to 0.4%, which allows to count today on continued growth of quotations, as investors like to act out such changes on the market.
Statistics from the US housing sales in the primary market in January is also playing into the hands of "bulls". Due to the growth rates on mortgage loans in February, there was a decline in mortgage lending, which is a strong negative factor for the real estate market.
GBP / USD recommendation 22.03.2017: Buy 1,2475 / 1,2435 and take profit 1,2535.
Forex. Dollar Yen (USD / JPY) forecast for 03.22.2017
In the morning you can expect a decrease in quotations on the background of sales in the stock markets in Asia and Europe. On the eve of US trading on the stock market culminated in the "red zone". At the same time two sectors (non-cyclic companies and utility companies) at the end of the day showed an increase. Both sectors are among the protective, i.e. investors buy these shares when to be afraid to take risks. In this connection, it is possible to expect reduction of quotations on Asian and European stock markets, which have a positive impact on quotations of the yen as a funding currency. Sales in the copper market is also confirmed by the low "risk appetite".
USD / JPY recommendation 22.03.2017: Sell 111,85 / 112,15 and take profit 111,45.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
