Forex Events today:
- 09.30 MSK. Japan: Press Conference of the Bank of Japan.
- 15:30 MSK. Eurozone: ECB Press Conference.
- 15:30 MSK. USA: Change in orders for durable goods in March (the previous value of 1.7% m / m forecast 1.5% m / m).
Eur usd forex forecast EUR / USD at today 27/04/2017
In today's market the main newsmaker Mario Draghi, at 15.30 MSK scheduled press conference. In which Super Mario is likely draws investors' attention to core inflation slowing to a minimum in the last 11 months, and will point to the risk of CPI decline in the short term due to lower prices for black gold. If in January-February Brent traded in the range 55-58,5 $ / barrel, but now the range has shifted to 50-55 $ / barrel.
Oil - an essential component of inflation and its dynamics has a strong impact on inflation expectations. The fact that the euro is now close to five-month high it is rather bad for the euro zone than good. Poor as currency growth causes inflation decline. the euro zone economy, unlike the United States, far from the state of "full employment" and the above two factors (decline in oil prices and the growth of the euro) could have a significant negative impact on the consumer price index.
Mario Draghi once again emphasize that the ECB's incentives will be valid until the end of 2017 and may be extended if necessary. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance of Germany published a forecast of GDP for 2017 - expected level of 1.5%, which is 0.2% less than in 2016. Thus, the preservation of incentives from the ECB euro-zone economy is really necessary. It is possible that the euro today will close the gap on Monday and will fall to seven figures.
EUR / USD recommendation 27.04.2017: Sell 1,0905 / 1,0950 and take profit 1,0770.
Gbp usd forex forecast GBP / USD today 04/27/2017
Pound - three reasons for traders to sell.
First , today, traders should wait for the release of positive data on orders for durable goods in the United States that support quotes greenbacks. It should be noted that this indicator is closely correlated with the indicator of housing sales in the secondary market, which in March was released on a fresh peak for the last 10 years.
Second , the commodity market is still observed sales, which in turn has a positive effect on the value of the US dollar, as the raw material is quoted in dollars.
Third , the debt market yields of British 10-year government bonds decreased by German and American, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in the assets of Albion. It is likely that these above described causes is sufficient to drop the British currency.
GBP / USD recommendation on 27.04.2017: Sell 1,2849 / 1,2885 and take profit 1,2765.
Forex dollar yen forecast USD / JPY today 04/27/2017
The euphoria on the stock markets continues, but is nearing its completion. The index of "fear" the VIX is close to its lowest level in the last ten years, which indicates either a strong correction on the S & P500 (to 2160/2000), or a reversal of the long-term uptrend and the drop in prices in the region of 1600. More than likely first scenario, which may realized in May. "Sell in may and go away" - sounds like that famous American stock exchange saying. Currently there are no significant reasons for the sharp fall in the US stock market, but the overdue correction. Fed policy remains challenging, despite the twofold increase in rates over the past 5 months. And if the FOMC to keep his promise and raise rates twice more this year, it is still monetary policy will be challenging.
The first conclusion - at stimulating monetary policy of the stock market does not fall much.
The second conclusion - to the beginning of May, investors are 2 trading days and worth waiting for to expect that market participants will try to "drive" the stock markets, as high as possible. Do European investors have today an excellent reason - Mario Draghi may declare that the stimulus from the ECB is still too early to fold. Given the high "risk appetite" today, traders should wait for testing 112 pieces.
USD / JPY recommendation 27.04.2017: Buy 111,00 / 110,60 and take profit 111,90.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company analyst FreshForex
