Forex. Forecast the euro dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 28/03/2017: rebound from the trend line

Results of the last trading day:

On Monday, the euro trading ended in positive territory. By the close of the trading session, the euro was down 45 pips to 1.0861. Gap remains open. But after a corrective movement from 1.0906 formed a long shadow.

Let me remind you that the weakening of the dollar caused the news that the new US administration failed to gain votes for the adoption of the law on health care reform. Traders were selling it as a failed attempt to pass the bill questioned the ability of the new president to implement the planned reforms.

Expectations for today:

In Asia, the euro has updated the session low at 1.0855. At the time of writing the price strayed from the trend line. Hourly indicators are unloaded, so is expected to strengthen to 1.0895 in the first half of the trading session of the European single currency. Monday's update did not consider.

News of the day (GMT + 3): The  

14:45 EU - Speech by ECB member B.Kerre;          

15:30 US - Preliminary data on wholesale inventories for February;

16:00 USA - House Price Index from the S & P / CS in January;

17:00 US - consumer confidence index from the SW in March, index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in March;

17:05 Canada - Speech by the head of the Bank of Canada of the runners;

19:50 US - the speech of the US Federal Reserve Dzh.Yellen;

20:00 USA - Speech by FOMC member Kaplan;

23:30 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Powell. 

Intraday outlook: at least - 1.0855 (current in Asia), the maximum - 1.0895, closing - 1.0874.

Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView

On Monday, the EUR / USD rate reached the level of 1.0906. The correction started at the American session of the zones 112-135 degrees. Downward correction of 45 degrees. At the moment, there are prerequisites to the new growth of quotations.

As the hour indicators are unloaded, my forecast is looking up. The goal is for buyers - 1.0895. Above I do not consider, since it is not unloaded four-hour indicators. If you look at the weekly TF, the price strayed from the trend line, which originates from the top 1.3994 (May 8, 2014). I do not think that it will be broken on Tuesday.

Another important point that should warn you. Cyclical analysis indicates the beginning of a stronger euro at 12:15 MSK. Until that time, should be formed at least. I ignored his forecast, because the price stops at the trend line. If it is passed, then the closing hour candles below 1.0850 script on the rising euro was canceled.

In this situation, be sure to consider the false breakdown because through the level 1.0850 fibouroven held 38.2% of the advance from 1.0760 to 1.0906. And it is below the trendline. If the buyers will be able to fend off the line, the reduction phase should start after 17:30 MSK. The faster growth of quotations, the higher the probability of achieving yesterday's maxim 1.0906.

Positive factors for the euro (+):

Fundamental:

(+) US President D.Tramp not pleased with the strong dollar;

(+) Threshold allowable US debt of $ 20.1 trillion. It can be achieved in March 2017 year. This will be a headache D.Trampa new president;

(+) The Greek government and international lenders have made progress in the negotiations on the second evaluation of the reform program;

(+) The head of the ECB Mario Draghi made it clear that the Central Bank may not need to implement further stimulus measures to revive the European economy. From April to December 2017 the ECB reduced the monthly asset purchases to 80 billion to 60 billion euros;

(+) The leaders discussed the issue of the ECB, interest rates before the end of the quantitative easing program may it be raised;

(+) E.Novotny ECB spokesman said that it is possible to increase the interest rate on deposits before start raising the refinancing rate;

(+) 24 March D.Tramp took the law on Obamacare health reform from the agenda of the meeting of the US Congress;

(+) The ECB Representative Lautenshleger - you need to prepare for a change in policy of the ECB;

Technical (short-term):

(+) As of 21/03/17, on the Chicago Exchange significantly increased large speculators long positions and cut short. Long-positions increased by 10.138 thousand., To 158.646 thousand. Contracts while the Short-positions decreased by 10,325 thousand., To 176.891 thousand. Contracts. The net short position decreased from 38.707 to 18.245 thousand. Contracts. Small speculators increased their long positions to 3,811 thousand to 65.280 thousand contracts, short positions -.. To 4.779 thousand to 63.093 thousand contracts... The net long position fell from 3,158 to 2,187 thousand contracts.;

(+) According myfxbook The proportion Short / Long at 7:38 MSK is: 84% / 15%, lots: 34751/6549 (the day before - 10206/2033) position: 69240/22454 (the day before - 27422/7518) ;

(+) The yield on 10-year US bonds: 2.380% (per 03.27.17: -1.57%).

(+) EURGBP (W): CCi (20), AO, AU - directed upwards;

(+) EURGBP (D): AC and Stochastic (5,3,3) - upwards. Bullish engulfing;

(+) EURUSD (M): Stochastic (5,3,3) - is directed upwards;

(+) EURUSD (W): Stochastic (5,3,3), AO, AC and CCI (20) - directed upwards;

(+) EURUSD (D): AO, Stochastic (5,3,3) - directed upwards, CCI (20) - tries to turn upwards;

Negative factors for the euro (-):

Fundamental:

(-) On Monday, March 27, according to CME Group's FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike has declined from 6.4% to 4.3% in May, in June - from 54.0% to 48.5% in July - with 60.8% to 56.1%;

(-) Political risks in Europe (elections in France);

(-) US Fed representative Evans expects 2-3 raise key interest rates in 2017. Next Fed raising rates would make a decision in June;

(-) The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Harker said that the Central Bank will continue to gradually raise rates for 2017;

Technical factors (short term):

(-) The yield on 10-year German bonds: 0.402% (per 27.03.17: -1.23%);

(-) In Asia, the yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 0.06% to 2.376%;

(-) EURGBP (W): Stochastic (5,3,3) - is directed downward;

(-) EURGBP (D): AO, CCI (20) - are directed downwards;

(-) EURUSD (M): AO and AC - facing down;

(-) EURUSD (D): AC - directed downward;

It lays in price:

(-) Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe said the refusal to participate in elections;

(+) Francois Bayrou - the leader of "Democratic Movement", refused to participate in the presidential race in favor of an independent candidate Emmanuel Makron;

(+) With Marine Le Pen lifted parliamentary immunity (decision taken for political reasons);

Vladislav Antonov Alpari