Forex. Review of markets currencies of developing countries: on the news from OPEC ruble appreciated, and the Mexican peso ceased to decline
In the short period from 26 to 28 September, the mood of the majority of developing countries in the currency markets remained optimistic, or at least neutral.
Sept. 28 countries belonging to OPEC, at an informal meeting in Algeria have agreed to a reduction in oil production. Details of production cuts, as well as detailed list of the countries that will participate in the agreement will be made public on the results of the official meeting of OPEC in Vienna in late November. Although an agreement in currency and oil markets is still a lot of questions, the oil market has reacted to September 28 this news rapid growth of quotations immediately by 5%. The news will strengthen a number of currencies of developing countries, which are traditionally considered to be "oil" in the first place we are talking about the CIS currencies: rubles, tenge and manat, as well as here can be attributed pesos, as the real and the rand currency of oil-producing countries.
However, a pronounced leader of growth during this period was tolkomeksikansky peso exchange rate which has risen against the dollar by 2.59%. Rose against the dollar, although by less than the percentage, the South African rand (+ 0.68%), Indian Rupee (0.33%), Kazakhstan tenge (+ 0.18%) and Russian ruble (+ 0.11%). In the neutral zone torgovaliskitaysky yuan and Azerbaijani manat.
The top losers have become the Brazilian real (-0.77%) and Turkish Lira (-0.67%)
In Mexico, left portion of macroeconomic data reflecting the gradual positive changes in the economy. Thus, the unemployment rate fell year on year from 3.8% to 3.7% in August. The negative trade balance of the country in August decreased by 9.8% from the level of - $ 1.02 billion to -. $ 0.92 billion data were positive for the peso to the dollar, which earlier fell drastically. In addition, rising oil prices also affected the peso as the currency sufficiently large producer of oil in the world.
In South Africa for three years before the term actually started presidential campaign. The National Union of Mineworkers said support Vice-President Cyril Ramofozy as a candidate for the post of the president of South Africa. Ramofoza already agreed to run for president. it was reported that the current president Jacob Zuma, head of South Africa since 2009. In the business community in South Africa, could leave his post next year. The foreign exchange market took the news quite optimistic, since Ramaphosa reputation of a strong negotiator and diplomat, able to unite the country, where, after the parliamentary elections brought to power a democratic opposition and increased tensions between the legislative and executive branches. The course of the rand against the dollar has grown, the positive news from OPEC also created positive external background for the rand.
In Turkey, came negative data on the inflow of foreign tourists to the country in August. In August, the outflow of foreign tourists in the country increased from 36.7% to almost 38%, which was a record in the summer of this year and over the past few years. Despite the gradual return of Russian tourists to Turkey, the real improvement of the situation can only be expected by the end of September, when restored, not only regular, but also charter flights between the two countries. News were moderately negative for the rate of the Turkish lira against the dollar.
In Brazil, the rate of reais to the dollar fell after the rapid growth in the last week, which is associated with a technical correction, and the fact that, according to recent polls, the incumbent President Michel Temer, who led the country after the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, today would vote only 5% of the population, and the majority of the population is ready to support an early presidential election. In addition, the Brazilian press spins scandals that previously Temer was charged with fraud. The foreign exchange market is concerned that due to political scandals and a showdown in the structures of power necessary for the country and will not be made to exit from the crisis reforms. Due to internal problems, apparently, currency traders have ignored the growth of the oil market, which has an impact on the country's economy.
In Kazakhstan Tenge exchange rate impact rising oil prices due to OPEC's decision to cut production in November, as well as probably the statement of the country Daniyar Akisheva National Bank that the situation on the domestic currency market of the country in the current year "normalized", and now the National Bank does not exclude the possibility of release tenge to float freely, which, in his opinion, will allow to improve the situation with the payment balance of the country. The currency market reacted positively to the statement by the head of the National Bank, KZT exchange rate against the dollar has grown up.
Calendar of future events
Thursday, September 29 - the decision of the Central Bank of Mexico on the interest rate.
Friday, September 30 - PMI Caixin indexes in the manufacturing and services sector of China in September, Turkey's trade balance for August, the unemployment rate in Brazil in August, South Africa's trade balance for August, foreign exchange reserves and the state budget deficit in India in August.
Monday, October 3 - Consumer price inflation in Turkey in September, the Brazilian trade balance for September.
Tuesday, October 4 - the decision of the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate.
Forecast
We maintain our forecasts for the pair dollar / ruble in the range of 63-64 and a pair of euro / ruble within 71-72.At the rate of KZT to raise our expectations of 334-336 tenge per dollar and 376-378 tenge per euro. South African rand exchange rate will soon at elevations 13,4-13,8 rand per dollar.
Source Alpari