Forex. The forecast euro dollar (EUR / USD) as of today 03/27/2017: as a support and purpose will make the level 1.0815

Results of the last trading day:

Four weeks in a row the euro / dollar closes growth. On Friday, the dollar weakened across the board as the agenda in the US Congress has been removed by the law Obamacare health reform. Republicans did not have enough votes. American journalists called the incident a political defeat of President Donald Trump administration. The opposition celebrated its success.

Investors began to doubt that D.Tramp be able to realize their promises, which he gave during the election campaign (increase infrastructure spending, tax cuts). 

Expectations for today:

Bidding opened lower on Monday on the dollar. EUR / USD rate reached the level of 1.0850. Since Friday and in Asia the euro rose against the US dollar, the closing of the day on Monday, is expected to decline the euro to 1.0815.

News of the day (GMT + 3): The  

11:00 Germany - the business climate index of the Ifo March, Eurozone - Money supply M3 for February, private lending for February;

12:20 The euro zone - an address by a member of the board of the ECB Lautenshlegera;

15:00 The euro zone - an address by a member of the board of the ECB Peter Prat;

19:30 The euro zone - an address by the ECB board member Jens Weidmann;

20:15 USA - Speech by FOMC Member Evans;

Intraday Forecast: minimum - 1.0815, maximum - 1.0854, closing - 1.0815.

Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView

On Monday, the US dollar is getting cheaper all over the market. The euro reached a mark 1.0850. My prediction is directed against Asia, and Friday's growth. The goal - 1.0815.

You're probably thinking, why do I have a small movement amplitude. Today received a single break point for the formation of low - 13:50 MSK. the price can be reduced only to the trend line 1.0820 / 25 up to that time. Although reasonable to go to 45 th degrees at 1.0798. There goes the book line from which you can start a new rally.

He drew another such factor. In the morning, the market dropped off the train a lot of sellers. According Myfxbook, on Friday at 7:38 MSK traders opened short positions 29272 lots, the remainder - 10206 lots (-65%). At the same time due to the reduction of long positions (profit-taking, TA) ratio did not change much and amounted to 83% / 16%. Though short positions were reduced, an imbalance will support customers.

Euro / dollar traded between 67 th and 90 th degrees. On the weekly TF goal - 1.1021. Today on the MA line U3 road is open to 1.0904.

Positive factors for the euro (+):

Fundamental:

(+) US President D.Tramp not pleased with the strong dollar;

(+) Threshold allowable US debt of $ 20.1 trillion. It can be achieved in March 2017 year. This will be a headache D.Trampa new president. The Law on the upper border of the national debt again enter into force on 16 March 2017;

(+) The Greek government and international lenders have made progress in the negotiations on the second evaluation of the reform program;

(+) The head of the ECB Mario Draghi made it clear that the Central Bank may not need to implement further stimulus measures to revive the European economy. From April to December 2017 the ECB reduced the monthly asset purchases to 80 billion to 60 billion euros;

(+) The leaders discussed the issue of the ECB, interest rates before the end of the quantitative easing program may it be raised;

(+) E.Novotny ECB spokesman said that it is possible to increase the interest rate on deposits before start raising the refinancing rate;

(+) 24 March D.Tramp took the law on health care reform Obamacare to the agenda in the US Congress.

Technical (short-term):

(+) As of 21/03/17, on the Chicago Exchange significantly increased large speculators long positions and cut short. Long-positions increased by 10.138 thousand., To 158.646 thousand. Contracts while the Short-positions decreased by 10,325 thousand., To 176.891 thousand. Contracts. The net short position decreased from 38.707 to 18.245 thousand. Contracts. Small speculators increased their long positions to 3,811 thousand to 65.280 thousand contracts, short positions -.. To 4.779 thousand to 63.093 thousand contracts... The net long position fell from 3,158 to 2,187 thousand contracts.;

(+) According myfxbook The proportion Short / Long at 6:38 MSK is: 83% / 16% of lots: 10206/2033 (the day before - 29272/9309), position: 27422/7518 (the day before - 68276/31988) ;

(+) In Asia, the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 1.43% to 2.366%;

(+) EURGBP (W): CCi (20), AO, AU - directed upwards;

(+) EURGBP (D): AC and Stochastic (5,3,3) - upwards. Bullish engulfing;

(+) EURUSD (M): Stochastic (5,3,3) - is directed upwards;

(+) EURUSD (W): Stochastic (5,3,3), AO, AC and CCI (20) - directed upwards;

(+) EURUSD (D): AB - pointing up; Stochastic (5,3,3) and CCI (20) - trying to turn up;

Negative factors for the euro (-):

Fundamental:

(-) On Friday March 24, according to CME Group's FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike remained at 6.4% in May, rose from 49.6% to 54.0% in June, in July - from 57.1 to 60.8%;

(-) Political risks in Europe (elections in France);

(-) US Fed representative Evans expects 2-3 raise key interest rates in 2017. Next Fed raising rates would make a decision in June;

(-) The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Harker said that the Central Bank will continue to gradually raise rates for 2017;

Technical factors (short term):

(-) The yield on 10-year German bonds: 0.403% (for 03.24.17: -2.18%);

(-) The yield on 10-year US bonds: 2.418% (for 24.03.17: -0.01%).

(-) EURGBP (W): Stochastic (5,3,3) - is directed downward;

(-) EURGBP (D): AO, CCI (20) - are directed downwards;

(-) EURUSD (M): AO and AC - facing down;

(-) EURUSD (D): AC - directed downward;

It lays in price:

(-) Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe said the refusal to participate in elections;

(+) Francois Bayrou - the leader of "Democratic Movement", refused to participate in the presidential race in favor of an independent candidate Emmanuel Makron;

(+) With Marine Le Pen lifted parliamentary immunity (decision taken for political reasons);

Vladislav Antonov Alpari