Events forex news today:
12:30 MSK. United Kingdom: Unemployment rate in January (the previous value of 4.8%, forecast 4.8%).
15.30 MSK. US: Consumer Price Index for February (the previous value of 2.5% y / y; the forecast of 2.6% y / y).
15.30 MSK. US: Retail Sales for February (previous value of 0.4% m / m forecast 0.2% m / m).
21.00 MSK. US: FOMC decision on the basic interest rate in February (previous value of <0.75%, the forecast <1.00%).
Forex. Euro dollar forecast EUR / USD nasegodnya 15/03/2017
Traders who have not yet had time to buy tickets to the south - now you have the last chance! Players forex worth waiting for strong sales in the euro. Blame is the positive US economic data. Let's start from the beginning. Yesterday's strong report on producer price index indicates that today, inflation in the US will be released at or slightly better than expected median. The growth of the consumer price index will force the Fed to increase interest rates. In general, the market expects that the "committee members" go to such a move - futures on a bet the Fed shows 93% chance of tightening monetary policy. Against this background, it is possible to expect falling of yield spreads on 10-year German government bonds and US, embolden the bears at building "shorts".
Another positive for the greenback - a drop in oil prices. In periods when the black gold demonstrates the weakness of the dollar is feeling fine. Traders should wait for testing the psychological level of $ 50 / barrel for Brent grade today / tomorrow that will add mood for dollar bulls.
EUR / USD recommendation 15.03.2017: Sell 1,0615 / 1,0665 and take profit 1,0520.
Forex. sterling dollar exchange rate forecast GBP / USD today 03/15/2017
Britannets Kaa not strayutsya bears push support, still can not escape below 1.21. Will the sellers take the pound abroad today? It is likely, as there are two good reasons for this.
First, with the opening of trading in the US, we get two important report for February. uchastikov market should not expect positive data on inflation and retail sales on the upward trend on the labor market. The US economy is close to full employment, and in such periods, inflation and retail sales in the sector are coming up. Strong data a positive impact on the US currency.
The culmination of the feast of the bears will be the announcement of the US Fed meeting. Traders should wait for raising the key rate, and statements that the FED is ready this year to double to take this step. That is, the Fed will have to confirm his words, the data at the last meeting in 2016. Let me remind you that in 2015 and 2016 for the federal funds rate was increased only once. Thus, the strong desire to increase the rate of 3 times a year, will provide strong support for the dollar.
It is impossible to ignore the report on the unemployment rate in the UK in January. Players should not expect changes in the rate, as British business is in limbo due Brexit. In Q4 2016 the number of bankruptcies of legal entities increased by 53% qoq. Therefore, today we should not expect a sharp fall in unemployment.
GBP / USD recommendation 15/03/2017: Sell 1,2150 / 1,2200 and take profit 1,2050.
Forex. Forecast the dollar yen pair USD / JPY today 15/03/2017
Players forekssegodnya worth buying the dollar in tandem with the Japanese currency, based on the update of the maximum of the last week (115.50). The main driver for the growth of the price - is to increase interest rates in the United States. This process, in turn, will cause the yield differential expansion of the debt securities of the US and Japan, which in turn will contribute to the inflow of capital into US assets. More here now there is no investment ideas. But this is not necessary. The fact that the Fed will raise rates enough for the growth of quotations of the pair. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan will hold its meeting on monetary policy, and here we can expect verbal intervention against the devaluation of the yen, as the Japanese central bank can not accelerate inflation to 2%.
USD / JPY recommendation 15.03.2017: Buy 114,80 / 114,30 and take profit 115,50.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
