Forex Events today:
17:30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in March (previous value -2,166M; -1,500M forecast).
Forex. Euro Dollar EUR / USD forecast for today 04/19/2017
Market participants have forgotten about the economy and focused on geopolitics. In the UK, announced early parliamentary elections, in France's presidential elections start April 23, North Korea declared its readiness to carry out new missile tests. Syria has receded into the background, but there is still very hot in every sense of the word. In the end we got a sale "risky assets" and the inflow of capital in the euro as the currency of funding.
Thanks to the ECB that at the end of 2014 did the euro currency funding carry trade operations. If so 10 years ago, with an increase of geopolitical tensions, investors are actively getting rid of the euro, now on the contrary, in a hurry to buy the single currency. United States on Tuesday issued a positive report on the volume of building permits and industrial production, but the market is completely ignored. Industrial production in the US in Q1 increased by 0.3% q / q and it is against the background of "high base" Q4 2016. It should be noted that this figure has increased by 0.79% in 2016. Thus, the business activity in the manufacturing accelerated and this is a signal for the Fed, it is possible to again raise interest rates in June. Today, forex traders should wait for reduction of quotations, after yesterday's rapid growth.
EUR / USD recommendation 19/04/2017: Sell 1,0730 / 1,0770 and take profit 1,0660.
Forex. Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 04/19/2017
Sterling at yesterday's auction furor growth of quotations by more than 2%. These developments, traders and investors have been waiting for. Media explained that growth in that coalition T. Mae can get a majority in early parliamentary elections and this factor is a positive impact on the British economy. Many experts also supported this view. But is it really all that simple? These same experts were wrong with Brexit issue in June 2016, and with the victory of Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election in November. Where is the guarantee that now they will fall right on target? The stock market took the news very pessimistic about early elections - FTSE index on Tuesday was the weakest link in the European stock markets. Although it should be the opposite - investors should enjoy a degree of political risk reduction and to buy up shares as "pies in the market at the weekend." Most likely, nothing positive has happened today. In contrast, T. Mae recognized that the political situation in Albion gradually destabilized and is necessary to make a "reset". Investors eve too emotionally reacted to the news from the UK. Today, players should expect profit-taking on the "Long" and the correction of the pair GBP / USD down.
GBP / USD recommendation 19.04.2017: Sell 1,2860 / 1,2910 and take profit 1,2760.
Forex. Dollar Yen Forecast USD / JPY today 19/04/2017
corporate reporting season in the US runs on a positive note, however, investors are afraid to buy stocks. It seems that speculators and robots work only on Sell positions. Yesterday the market pleased with Johnson & Johnson reports, Bank of America Corporation. Even the Internet giant Yahoo, which many investors began to write off, on Tuesday reported a net profit growth of 100% !! On Monday, Netflix reported a net profit growth of 566% !! On such data we need to grow and do not grow. Fall, and it is strong and fast. But also to new lows the S & P500 on Tuesday did not go away, unlike their European counterparts. Another interesting signal - it is at least a moderate, but still a decrease fear index VIX. It turns out that investors have no way scared and they want to buy, but at lower levels. And if so, we can expect growth of quotations of greenbacks.
USD / JPY recommendation 19.04.2017: Buy 108,60 / 108,30 and take profit 109,30.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company analyst FreshForex
