Results of the last trading day:
On Friday, the euro closed lowered tion. After the publication of the consumer inflation data in the US evromedvedi struck the lower boundary of the channel week.
The consumer price index in the United States came out better than expected, which led to a rise in price of the dollar on the entire market. I do not understand there was one, what was to buy the US dollar before the weekend if at a meeting on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will leave its monetary policy unchanged?According to the latest CME Group's FedWatch, the likelihood of increasing US interest rates rose from 47% to 54.9% in December. In September remained at 12%.
The euro / dollar fell to 1.1150. If you look at the weekly and daily TF, there weakening of the euro, even imperceptibly.
Expectations for today:
On the first day of the week, I always consider the correctional movement against Friday. If the correction of the euro will increase with the opening of trading in Europe, it is possible to consider a weekly back channel to 1.12313. If the market goes according to the forecast, the increase in prices to expect 1.1203.
News of the day (GMT + 3): The
At 11:00 Eurozone - the balance of payments, taking into account seasonal variations for July
At 13:00 Bundesbank Monthly Report
At 17:00 US housing market index from the NAHB for September
At 17:30 Australia - The index of leading indicators the Conference Board in July
Technical analysis:
Intraday outlook: at least - 1.1152 (current in Asia), the maximum - 1.1203, closing - 1.1184.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar exchange rate, the time period. Data source: TradingView
After the publication of inflation data in the US, the euro / dollar broke through the bottom border of a five-day channel at 1.1212. Also was breached support at 1.1178. Today, these levels will act as resistance to buyers.
Since the Stochastic Oscillator is in the sales area, the forecast of 1.1180 expect the weakening euro against the US dollar to 1.1160. Since the economic calendar today is empty, then the US session is quite likely price increases up to 45-degrees of 1.1203.
In case of loss of the bulls of support at 1.1125 / 30, the euro come under pressure for many couples. And now, you can still go out on the formation of a triangle with an upper limit of 1.13.
According to the materials of Alpari Author: Vladislav Antonov
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