The GBPUSD rate is strengthening but remains under pressure from global tensions and calls for increased defence spending. Current quote – 1.3593. Details – in our analysis for 9 July 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
- The UK is working on an agreement with the US to cancel steel tariffs, fearing an increase up to 50%
- An increase in steel tariffs could have a devastating impact on the British steel industry
- GBPUSD forecast for 9 July 2025: 1.3770
Fundamental analysis
The GBPUSD rate is recovering after three consecutive days of decline. The British pound came under pressure due to rising global tensions and mounting calls for increased defence spending, creating long-term budgetary uncertainty. Despite the current bearish correction, the GBPUSD currency pair continues to move within an uptrend.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that government debt could reach 270% of GDP by 2070, due to demographic changes and rising healthcare and pension costs.
At the same time, the UK is actively working on an agreement with the US to cancel steel tariffs, fearing tariffs may rise up to 50%. This could have a devastating impact on the British steel industry, which is already facing difficulties and will have to cope with additional economic risks if tariffs are increased.
GBPUSD technical analysis
The GBPUSD rate is moving within an upward channel; however, recently the pair has faced a bearish correction. The current chart structure indicates a possible rebound from the support level at 1.3525, with potential for further growth. Currently, quotes are testing the lower boundary of the descending channel, suggesting the formation of a reversal pattern.
The forecast for GBPUSD today suggests a bounce from the 1.3570 level and growth of quotes towards 1.3770. Analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator confirms the likelihood of a reversal, as the signal lines have started to cross, which may serve as a buy signal.
Additional confirmation of rising quotes may be a breakout above the upper boundary of the Falling Wedge reversal pattern, with subsequent consolidation of quotes above the 1.3600 level.
Summary
The GBPUSD rate continues to recover despite budget risks and geopolitical tensions, confirming support for the uptrend. Technical analysis of GBPUSD today suggests a rebound from the 1.3525 support level and growth of quotes towards 1.3770.
