Gold (XAUUSD) prices pulled back to 3,677 USD after yesterday’s rally. The market is now awaiting today’s Fed decision. Find out more in our analysis for 17 September 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Gold (XAUUSD) set a new record slightly above 3,700 USD and is now correcting
- The market is pricing in three more Fed rate cuts by the end of the year
- XAUUSD forecast for 17 September 2025: 3,703 and 3,735
Fundamental analysis
On Wednesday, gold (XAUUSD) quotes dipped to 3,677 USD per ounce as traders took profit following the record high and a test of the psychological 3,700 mark.
The broader uptrend remains intact as the market braces for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, widely expected to be a 25-basis-point rate cut – the first this year. Weak labor market data confirmed a slowdown and boosted expectations of further easing, with markets now pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year.
That said, the US economy still shows signs of resilience. August retail sales rose by 0.6%, with the core control group up 0.7%, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains.
Investor focus is firmly on the Fed’s updated dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference, which could provide new signals on the policy trajectory.
Since the start of the year, gold has gained 41%, driven by strong central bank demand, safe-haven inflows, and US dollar weakness.
The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is positive.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) prices remain close to all-time highs. Since late August, gold has been in a steady uptrend, consistently setting new local peaks.
The immediate support level is located at 3,612, with a stronger mark near 3,511. The resistance level is at 3,703, the record high already tested by the market.
Bollinger Bands indicate that prices are holding near the upper boundary of the range. This confirms strong bullish momentum but also warns of overbought conditions and the risk of a local correction.
Overall, gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating near record levels. A breakout above 3,703 would unlock potential for further gains to new all-time highs. In the event of a pullback, the key support zone remains at 3,612–3,620.
Summary
Gold is poised to resume its rally after a brief profit-taking correction. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 17 September 2025, suggests a breakout above 3,703, with a likely move towards 3,735.
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