XAUUSD prices retain a bullish bias, remaining close to the key resistance level at 3,660 USD amid expectations of the Fed’s decision. The rate currently stands at 3,640 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 15 September 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision
- Investors are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed this week
- XAUUSD forecast for 15 September 2025: 3,700
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD prices are undergoing a correction, with buyers attempting to break above the 3,660 USD resistance level for the fifth consecutive trading session, so far unsuccessfully, despite the prevailing bullish trend. Market focus is now on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision. Investors are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut this week amid signs of labour market weakness and the potential continuation of the easing cycle next year. Against this backdrop, gold could get a boost to break above the 3,660 USD resistance level in the coming session.
Ahead of the meeting, retail sales and industrial production data will serve as key benchmarks for traders, providing further signals about the resilience of the US economy.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has filed a court request to be allowed to dismiss Lisa Cook before the September Fed meeting. The Department of Justice submitted a motion asking for a ruling by the 15th, just ahead of the rate meeting, sparking concerns over the independence of the US central bank.
XAUUSD technical analysis
XAUUSD quotes are consolidating within a symmetrical Triangle pattern after hitting new local highs around the 3,660 USD zone.
The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests the bullish scenario remains intact, with a potential breakout above the 3,660 USD resistance level and a rise towards 3,755 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned from overbought territory and is approaching a support line, indicating a likely imminent recovery of bullish momentum.
An additional signal for upside will be a breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary.
Summary
XAUUSD quotes remain close to the 3,660 USD resistance level amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and heightened focus on US economic data and events surrounding the central bank’s independence. The XAUUSD price forecast indicates a high probability of a breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary, with prices climbing towards 3,755 USD.
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