Gold (XAUUSD) price on Wednesday holds near 3,338 USD. The market is assessing a spectrum of risks. Details – in our analysis for 2 July 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Gold (XAUUSD) price has stopped rising and paused
- Sharp fall in the US dollar rate limited gold’s downside potential
- XAUUSD forecast for 2 July 2025: 3,344
Fundamental analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) price remains around 3,338 USD. There is some pressure on quotes due to reduced geopolitical tension – demand for gold as a safe haven has weakened.
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced that Israel agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and warned Hamas to accept the terms to avoid further escalation.
The weakening US dollar limited gold price declines. USD remains under pressure amid fiscal risks and trade uncertainty. The Senate approved Trump’s large tax and budget package, which now goes to the House of Representatives. The bill foresees an increase in government debt by 3.3 trillion USD.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the regulator’s wait-and-see stance but did not rule out a possible rate cut as early as this month. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects monetary policy easing by September.
The forecast for Gold (XAUUSD) is neutral.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart for Gold (XAUUSD), the price continues to recover after the decline. It rebounded from the local minimum at 3,246 and has risen by more than 90 in recent sessions. Currently, the quote has approached an important resistance level at 3,344. The upward movement is accompanied by a series of bullish candles and Bollinger Bands expansion. Altogether, this indicates a strengthening momentum and increased volatility.
The nearest target remains the level at 3,344. Its breakout could open the way for a retest of highs around 3,451. If this does not happen, a short-term correction is possible, especially given the price approaching the upper Bollinger Band boundary. Key support at the moment is in the 3,313–3,315 area. Further movement will depend on US macroeconomic data and Fed rate expectations.
Summary
Gold (XAUUSD) price may continue to rise, but everything depends on Fed rate signals. The Gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 2 July 2025, does not rule out a retest of 3,344.
