As always behave securities before and after the elections? Is there a pattern?If you look at the dynamics of the DJIA since 1900 (source - Bloomberg), that certain patterns can be seen - on the materials AMarkets.
In the interval of the last 100 years of election day fell on the first half of November. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, the stock steadily increased in an election year since the beginning of the year and up to the elections. In 2000 and 2008, dramatic changes were observed. In 2012 and this year the index grew again. Exactly one month before the elections in the last four episodes of the election code was reduced. In particular, in 2016.
How to behave in the index during the month after the election? No clear patterns can not be traced - at different times in different ways. Since the elections before the end of the first quarter of next year, the index usually grown. It is in the last twenty years. Exception - 2000 and 2008, when the index was down waves. In the last six episodes DJIA decline from the time of the presidential vote and the end of the first quarter of the subsequent year, this reduction has a very noticeable scale. This is true for 1956, 1968, 1972, 1976, 2000 and 2008.
