Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 30.01.- 02.03.2017: Investor Relations - two reasons to sell!
The first reason, the strong upward trend in global stock markets are traditionally a negative impact on the precious metal value, since gold is perceived by investors as a "safe asset".
The second reason , on Wednesday, February 1 US Fed will announce the outcome of its meeting on monetary policy. Traders should wait for the statements that the regulator may consider raising interest rates at its next meeting in March. This does not mean necessarily that the FED will raise the rate on March 15. It is likely that D. Yellen noted the high rate of inflation and the growth will indicate the need to continue the policy of raising interest rates to prevent inflationary overheating of the economy. FOMC may give the market a hint of a rate hike, and this will be enough to strengthen the US dollar as the market in the first place lives rumors and expectations. Strengthening of the dollar, in turn, traditionally have a negative impact on the value of gold.
Gold (XAU / USD) Recommendation: Sell 1195/1210 and take profit in 1170.
Brent oil forecast for the week 30.01-03.02.2017: Investors should sell raw materials
Black gold of the past two weeks, trading in a narrow range of 54.09 -57.20 and, in my opinion, the next week you can expect to test the lower limit. As noted earlier, the Fed may make a number of positive statements about the future increase in interest rates in the US that will support the demand for the dollar and will put pressure on the oil quotations. Why FED can make such statements? Primarily due to the increase in inflation expectations. Inflation caused by two factors: the increase in demand and an increase in costs. Both factors are now seen in the US economy. The latest survey of Michigan Institute also confirms this trend: inflation expectations of households increased to 2.6% in January, from 2.2% in December. It should also be noted increase in the number of oil rigs in the United States and Canada to the level of 566 and 200 units. These levels are the highest since November 20 and February 6, 2015, respectively. Thus, the increase in the offer is a negative factor for the stock. Although this does not mean that this factor may cause a collapse in oil prices. That factor is sufficient to reduce the quotations in the short term.
London Brent crude recommendation: Sell 55,90 / 57,25 and take profit 54,45.
Investors S & P500 forecast for the week 30.01.- 02.03.2017: Trade in a narrow range
In the coming week, it formed a mixed background. On the one hand, we can expect an update historic highs on the back of positive macroeconomic statistics from the ISM. Economic growth in the United States is gaining momentum, as evidenced by strong data on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in January figure was 98.5 n, which is the maximum in the last 13 years.. On the other hand, after the Fed meeting could jump top yields on Treasury bonds, which in turn may force investors start to take profits on long positions. Bond yields and stock prices move in different directions and as the S & P500 broad market is in the historical maximum, it is logical that many traders may begin to take profits.
S & P500 recommendation: 2285-2315 flat.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
