The USDCAD pair is strengthening amid signs of a weakening Canadian economy, with the price currently at 1.3757. Discover more in our analysis for 23 June 2025.
USDCAD forecast: key trading points
- Canada’s raw materials price index declined by 0.4% in May
- Preliminary May retail sales in Canada fell by 1.1%
- USDCAD forecast for 23 June 2025: 1.3845
Fundamental analysis
The USDCAD rate is rising for five consecutive trading sessions. Buyers confidently broke above the key resistance level at 1.3715, opening the way to the next major target at 1.3845. The US dollar received support from the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Weak economic data added to pressure on the Canadian dollar. Canada’s raw materials price index dropped by 0.4% in May following a 3.0% fall in April, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and missing expectations. Producer prices declined by 0.5% for the month, also marking a second consecutive drop and coming in below expectations. Preliminary May retail sales showed a 1.1% decrease compared to April, the sharpest drop since March 2023. This points to weakening consumer demand.
USDCAD technical analysis
The USDCAD rate continues to strengthen, with buyers retaining control over the market as prices remain within an ascending channel. Today’s USDCAD forecast anticipates a rebound from the EMA-65 and a climb towards 1.3845. The Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone, suggesting a potential short-term bearish correction. A breakout above the upper boundary of the ascending channel and consolidation above 1.3795 would validate the bullish scenario.
Summary
Weak Canadian economic data and US dollar support driven by geopolitical instability continue to lift USDCAD. USDCAD technical analysis points to an ongoing uptrend with a target at 1.3846.
