The EURUSD rate continues to rise steadily as expectations of imminent Fed policy easing grow. The price currently stands at 1.1679. Find more details in our full analysis for 26 June 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The US dollar weakens amid fading geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts
- Jerome Powell stressed that the US dollar remains the global reserve currency
- US new home sales dropped by 13.7% in May
- EURUSD forecast for 26 June 2025: 1.1795
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate keeps strengthening, posting gains for the sixth consecutive trading session. Buyers have broken above the key resistance level at 1.1625, reinforcing the current bullish trend. The US dollar remains under pressure due to easing geopolitical risks and growing expectations of Fed monetary easing.
Speaking before the Senate committee on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the impact of trade tariffs on US inflation is difficult to predict. He emphasised that the US dollar continues to serve as the world’s reserve currency but refrained from commenting on whether it is currently overvalued.
Further support for the EURUSD pair came from weak housing data: new home sales in the US declined by 13.7% month-on-month in May, falling to 623 thousand annualised, versus the expected 690 thousand.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate is pulling back after touching the upper boundary of the bullish channel. However, the current chart structure still indicates a persisting bullish impulse with the potential to reach new highs.
Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests the price could resume its upward trajectory after pulling back to the 1.1645 support level, with an upside target at 1.1795. A breakout above 1.1690 would confirm market readiness to extend the trend and bolster buying interest.
The Stochastic Oscillator points to a local overbought phase, signalling a possible short-term dip consistent with a pullback scenario before the next upward move. The 65-period Moving Average continues to support the overall bullish trend.
Summary
The EURUSD rate maintains its upward momentum as the US dollar weakens due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and poor US housing data. EURUSD technical analysis suggests continued upward momentum, with a pullback to 1.1645 potentially laying the groundwork for a fresh upward wave towards 1.1795.
