Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 13 - 17 March 2017
The beginning of spring for the precious metal held in the "red". Over the last two weeks of trading gold has fallen in price by 4.16%. In the coming week, I expect the downtrend to continue.
First , strong economic data from the US can count on employment growth, as the US stock market and the dollar, which in turn is a strong negative factor for the yellow metal. When stocks are rising and the dollar, investors rush to get rid of gold.
Secondly , the CFTC, after two consecutive weeks of growth, recorded a decline in net speculative positions in precious metals by 30.1 thousand. Contracts. This rate of decline is the highest in the last four months. Investor sentiment is very much changed and, in my opinion, it is primarily due to the expectations of the FOMC interest rate increase.
Gold (XAU / USD) a recommendation for the week 13-17.03.2017: the Sell 1207/1220, and take profit in 1184.
Brent oil forecast for the week 13 - 17.03.3017
Oil trades in commodity markets last week completed quotations decrease by 7.9%, and is likely to drop in oil prices will continue in the new Neel. Buyers now have nothing to do market - all the power in "bear." Why is the black gold will show weakness?
Four reasons for investors to sell oil.
First , oil upsetting macroeconomic statistics from China. China's trade surplus at the end of February went into the negative region. During the first two months of the year a positive balance dropped by 23.4% y / y. Thus, economic growth in China is slowing down, which will reduce the demand for petroleum China.
Second , the US oil production reached a new yearly high, and reserves of black gold rose for nine consecutive weeks. Furthermore, four weeks in a row stock volumes update highs, on average, 8% higher than the indicators of the beginning of 2016. Baker Hughes on Friday once again reported about the growth of drilling platforms in the US by 8 units to the level of 617, which is a maximum of 2 October 2015. This factor allows the calculation of a new drop in oil prices.
Third , the US Federal Reserve may March 15 interest rate increase, which has a positive impact on quotations of the US dollar and a negative impact on oil prices.
Fourth , according to the CFTC large speculators again fix long positions on the oil market, which also confirms the downward trend.
London Brent crude for the week 13-17.03.2 recommendation 017 : Sell 52,90 / 54,00 and take profit 50,45.
The forecast S & P500 investors in the week 13 - 03/17/2017
In the first half of the new trading week, before the announcement of the Fed meeting, investors have three reasons to wait for the growth of quotations.
First , the positive statistics on the labor market in February signals the acceleration of economic growth in the United States. Investors will expect corporate earnings growth, which traditionally has a positive effect on share prices.
Second , the index of "fear" the VIX on Friday lost more than 5%, which allows the calculation of the increase in demand for risky assets. Thirdly, according to the CFTC large speculators increased their purchase of new futures contracts: 51 thousand contracts, against 55.8 thousand contracts a week earlier... This trend indicates that investors are positively overcame the prospects for US stocks.
Third. It is impossible to ignore the Fed meeting. On Wednesday March 15th FED may raise the discount rate by 0.25%, which can cause profit-taking on long positions and the pullback in the market. When the Fed in 2015 and 2016 to raise rates, the stock market was down by 3.1% and 1.1% respectively. The same dynamics can be repeated this time.
S & P500 recommendation for the week 13-17.03.20 17 : Buy 2370/2350 and take profit in 2395.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Company Analyst FreshForex
