Brent quotes decline after three days of growth amid an unexpected increase in US oil inventories. Current quote – 68.26 USD. Details – in our analysis for 3 July 2025.
Brent forecast: key trading points
- US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels
- OPEC+ considers increasing oil production from August
- Market awaits the US employment report publication
- Brent forecast for 3 July 2025: 61.90
Fundamental analysis
Brent prices shifted to a correction after three consecutive sessions of confident growth. Pressure on quotes came from statistics showing an increase in US crude oil inventories and expectations of expanded production from OPEC+.
According to the latest data, US commercial crude oil stocks rose by 3.845 million barrels last week, while analysts had forecast a decrease of around 2 million.
An additional bearish factor was reports about OPEC+ plans to ramp up production. At the meeting on 6 July, member countries will discuss the possibility of increasing supply quotas. Several key members have already expressed willingness to support an additional production hike of 411,000 barrels per day in August.
Meanwhile, market participants await the release of an important US employment report on Thursday. Its results may influence expectations regarding the timing and scale of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. A more accommodative monetary policy could support economic activity and, consequently, boost oil demand.
Brent technical analysis
Brent quotes are correcting after rebounding from the 285-period Moving Average, reinforcing the scenario of developing a downward impulse. The nearest downside target in the Brent price forecast is 61.90 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator indicator is in the overbought zone and shows signs of reversal: the %K and %D lines form a bearish crossover, indicating reduced buying activity. Additional confirmation of the bearish scenario will be a breakout below the lower boundary of the correction channel with quotes consolidating under the 65.55 USD level.
Summary
The increase in US oil inventories and expectations of higher OPEC+ production have added pressure on Brent, while market participants await US employment data to assess demand prospects. Brent analysis for today indicates downside potential towards 61.90 USD, provided support at 65.55 USD is broken.
